Bank Central Asia Posts Rp14.4 Trillion Profit in 3Q25, Signals Stronger Growth Ahead
Key Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Bank Central Asia, one of Indonesia’s largest private lenders, has reported a net profit of Rp14.4 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, up 1% from a year earlier but down 3% from the previous quarter. The result brought its nine-month 2025 earnings to Rp43.4 trillion, an increase of 6% year on year, representing 75% of the full-year consensus estimate — in line with last year’s realization ratio.
The bank’s third-quarter performance broadly matched its monthly trend from July to August, when management maintained a cautious approach to lending and raised provisions as a proactive measure. However, during its 3Q25 earnings call, management expressed a more optimistic outlook heading into the final quarter of 2025 and 2026, citing expected macroeconomic improvement driven by higher government spending and an anticipated easing cycle in benchmark rates.
Maintains 2025 Guidance, Signals Faster Loan Growth in 2026
Management reaffirmed its 2025 credit growth target in the range of 6–8% year on year, with actual loan growth reaching 8% as of September. The cost of credit is expected to settle at 0.5% by year-end, implying a decline from 0.6% in the third quarter. The improvement is supported by lower non-performing loans, which fell sequentially in the third quarter after consecutive increases in the first half of the year.
For 2026, although no official guidance has been issued, management indicated potential loan growth in the range of 8–10%. Stronger lending volumes, expanding low-cost deposits (CASA), and improving asset quality are expected to offset the potential margin pressure from lower loan yields amid a softer interest rate environment. Bank Indonesia is projected to cut its policy rate once more by end-2025 and three times during 2026, according to BBCA’s internal view.
Buyback and Dividend Outlook
BBCA also announced a share buyback plan of up to Rp5 trillion between Oct 22, 2025, and Jan 19, 2026, with a maximum purchase price of Rp9,200 per share. Management noted that the actual amount repurchased will depend on market conditions, meaning the total buyback may fall short of the allocated amount.
On dividends, the bank said it is still discussing the payout ratio for the 2025 financial year. However, analysts see room for a higher dividend payout compared with 2024’s 67.4%, given the bank’s robust capital adequacy ratio of 29.9% as of September 2025.
Source: InvestingPro, data as of Oct 20, 2025
Valuation and Market View
BBCA’s third-quarter performance likely marks the trough before earnings re-acceleration in the fourth quarter, consistent with management’s forward guidance. The bank’s shares have climbed 7.9% in the past two days and closed at Rp7,875 on Monday, Oct 20, up 5% on the day and near the midpoint of its 52-week range of Rp7,225–10,850.
According to InvestingPro data (see chart), the stock trades at 3.2 times one-year forward book value — around 2.5 standard deviations below its five-year average — with an estimated fair value of Rp10,336, implying an upside potential of about 31% from the current level. The consensus target from 21 analysts stands at Rp10,813, within a valuation band of Rp7,673–14,098.
With its strong fundamentals, a 12-year record of rising dividends, and solid capital position, BBCA remains one of the most resilient and liquid banking plays in Indonesia. Investortrust maintains a constructive outlook on the domestic banking sector, led by BBCA’s improving earnings trajectory and attractive valuation base.