Indonesia Sets Ambitious 2045 for a Market Cap of 120% of GDP

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s long-term economic ambitions hinge on a financial system far deeper than the one it has today, and the government has now set a benchmark to measure that transformation. Arief Wibisono, Special Advisor to the Minister of Finance for Financial Services and Capital Markets, says Indonesia must lift its market capitalization to 120% of GDP by 2045, more than doubling the current ratio of around fifty percent, if the country hopes to compete as a high-income economy.

He described the capital market as a foundation stone of Indonesia Emas 2045 — the country's target to become a developed nation — and emphasized that the financial sector must grow in depth, capacity, and sophistication if Indonesia hopes to achieve 8% economic growth and maintain competitiveness in an increasingly complex global landscape.

“This is an ambitious target” Arief said. “Our financial sector still has limitations. We need structural strengthening, better intermediation, and a broader role for non-bank financial institutions.”

His remarks came at a moment when both regulators and industry leaders are beginning to recognize that Indonesia’s financial system no longer matches the scale of its economic aspirations. For years, capital formation has relied too heavily on bank lending, which offers debt but not the equity capital required for companies to expand with resilience.

Arief argued that a financial system capable of mobilizing long-term funding, encouraging risk-taking by entrepreneurs, and protecting investors is essential if Indonesia intends to compete globally by mid-century.

Investortrust CEO Primus Dorimulu supported this view in his later session. He warned that Indonesia’s 8% growth target would remain out of reach unless the capital market becomes a central engine of economic expansion. “Through the capital market, companies receive fresh money, not debt” Primus said. “If Indonesia wants to move forward, the capital market must be strengthened.”

Arief’s remarks did not stand alone. They were echoed and reinforced by panelists from Indonesia and abroad who outlined the conditions required for the government’s vision to be realized. Among them was Kartika Sutandi, Chief Marketing Officer of Jarvis Asset Management, who argued that Indonesia must confront its chronic liquidity weakness if it hopes to attract international capital and support domestic investor confidence.

She noted that Indonesia’s weight in global indices has shrunk dramatically over the past decade, a trend that discourages large active managers from dedicating resources to the market. “When you are too small in MSCI, the active managers stop paying attention” she said. “Liquidity is everything.”

A Larger, Trustworthy Market

Her observation underscored a deeper concern raised throughout the forum. A market cannot expand to 120% of GDP if domestic investors repeatedly lose money and foreign investors struggle to find adequate depth. Building a larger market, therefore, requires building a more trustworthy one.

This was a point driven by Lily Widjaja, Executive Director of the Association of Securities Companies (APEI). Lily explained that Indonesia faces a structural cybersecurity shortfall that threatens both investor protection and market integrity. Too many brokers, she said, lack the capital to deploy robust technology, leaving them vulnerable to account takeovers, fraudulent withdrawals, and transaction manipulation.

“Strong technology is not cheap” she said. “It is unrealistic to expect brokers with small capital bases to match the cybersecurity standards of banks. We need SROs to step in because the ecosystem depends on it.”

Her argument resonated with the broader discussion on market modernization. If Indonesia hopes to triple the size of its market relative to GDP, the supporting infrastructure cannot afford weak links. This includes not only brokers but also payment systems, surveillance tools, and investor-protection mechanisms.

Technological Resilience

The importance of technological resilience was further elaborated by Shuvam Misra, veteran market technologist whose firm, Remiges Technologies, has engineered critical systems used across India’s exchanges, depositories, and brokers. Misra explained that Indonesia’s recent fraud cases did not stem from failures in IDX or OJK core systems but from vulnerabilities in surrounding applications, connectivity points, and investor operations.

“These cases happened without breaching the core infrastructure” he said. “They exploit gaps in rules, latency, member systems, and investor behavior. That distinction matters because it shows where the real work must be done.”

Misra also warned that Indonesia must prepare its technology backbone not for today’s trading volumes but for the volumes it expects. India’s markets grew explosively only after infrastructure was upgraded ahead of demand. Indonesia, he said, cannot afford to wait until the surge arrives. “If Indonesia wants the trade counts and value we see in India today, the infrastructure must be prepared now.”

Critical Juncture

His perspective echoed remarks delivered earlier by Sundararaman Ramamurthy, Managing Director and CEO of the Bombay Stock Exchange, who said that Indonesia stands at a promising juncture with demographic strength and political momentum.

He urged Indonesia to build digital rails that allow retail investors to participate with ease and safety, emphasizing that India’s transformation was driven by technology that opened the market “to every citizen, from drivers to informal workers.”

Seen from this angle, government’s ambitious 120% target feels less like a conventional forecast and more like a high-stakes stress test of whether Indonesia can cultivate the kind of sophisticated financial system a modern economy demands.

Achieving this benchmark would hinge entirely on the efficacy of a complex collaborative effort—requiring seamless coordination and unified direction among key players: government bodies, regulatory agencies, market institutions, burgeoning technology firms, and academic sectors.

“Government cannot do this alone” Arief said. “The private sector cannot do it alone. Universities, industry players, investors, and policymakers all have essential roles.”

Investortrust's Primus captured the same sentiment more bluntly. Indonesia cannot reach 8% growth if it continues to treat the capital market as a peripheral instrument rather than a national priority. Nor can it rely solely on banks, SMEs programs, or subsidies to drive long-term expansion.

The country must cultivate an investment culture, mobilize domestic savings, increase the number of investors far beyond the current nineteen million, and build the technological safeguards that give the public confidence to participate.

India's Experiences Offer Hope

India’s experience offers a mirror of what Indonesia could achieve. India grew from under 30 million retail investors to more than 200 million in five years. Its market capitalization now exceeds $5 trillion, equal to 131% of GDP. BSE lists more than eighty-five hundred companies. The lesson, Sundararaman said, is that progress is possible when systems and incentives align.

Indonesia’s government has now declared that it wants the same result by 2045. Whether the country reaches that destination will depend on how faithfully it responds to the voices at this year’s forum.

Arief offered the vision, but the panelists supplied the conditions. A deeper market requires deeper liquidity. A safer market requires stronger cybersecurity. A broader market requires more retail participation. A larger market requires infrastructure capable of handling the speed and scale of modern finance.

The path to Indonesia Emas 2045 will be measured not only by growth rates but by how well the capital market can carry the weight of the country’s ambitions. The one-hundred-twenty-percent target is now on the table. The work begins with building the system that can sustain it.