Property VAT Break Extended Through 2026, Analysts See Buying Opportunity in CTRA, PWON, SMRA, BSDE
Key Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id – Indonesia has extended its 100% value-added tax, or VAT, incentive on property purchases until 2026, signaling sustained government support for a sector viewed as critical to household demand and economic stability. The policy, combined with improved banking liquidity, is expected to lift developers’ pre-sales by about 4% in 2026, after a projected 3% contraction this year.
The measure underscores Jakarta’s determination to shield domestic consumption from global headwinds, positioning real estate as a key anchor of growth. Analysts note that housing remains a central driver of credit growth, employment, and multiplier effects across construction and consumer sectors.
Southeast Asia and Beyond
Indonesia’s VAT holiday mirrors efforts across Asia to stabilize housing markets in times of economic strain. Since 2024, China has introduced targeted easing measures, including lower mortgage rates and reduced down payment requirements in select cities, though oversupply remains a drag.
Singapore, by contrast, has opted for cooling rather than stimulus, imposing higher stamp duties on foreign buyers to prevent overheating. Malaysia recently extended its Home Ownership Campaign, which waived stamp duties and offered developer discounts to spur demand.
Against this backdrop, Indonesia’s 100% VAT exemption stands out as one of the most aggressive fiscal supports in the region. For global investors, it signals both policy consistency and a pro-growth stance, even as external risks cloud the outlook.
Liquidity injections into banks are reinforcing this trend. By lowering funding costs, the government is encouraging banks to expand mortgage lending. Historically, pre-sales have risen in tandem with stronger liquidity, particularly as credit becomes more accessible to middle-income households.
Analyst Views
Analysts at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, Wilastita Muthia Sofi and Ismail Fakhri Suweleh, observed that VAT-subsidized properties have already helped developers reach nearly half of their full-year sales targets in the first half of 2025. “The incentive is not only cushioning demand but also shifting the buyer base toward end-users, making the market structurally healthier,” they said in a recent report.
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Despite the policy boost, property stocks continue to trade at a steep discount to their five-year averages. Analysts say this presents an opportunity, as balance sheet quality and return on equity (ROE) are gradually improving.
BRI Danareksa is keeping an overweight rating on the sector, with PT Ciputra Development Tbk, or CTRA, as its top pick. PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON), PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA), and PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) are also recommended.
Valuation of Ciputra Development (CTRA)
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, or CTRA, is currently trading at Rp930 per share, near the lower end of its 52-week range of Rp650–Rp1,430. Based on consensus analyst targets, the fair value stands at Rp1,373 on average, implying an upside potential of 47.7%. Eleven analysts place their price expectations between Rp950 and Rp1,660, while InvestingPro’s valuation models suggest a range of Rp1,064–Rp1,890.
From a fundamentals perspective, CTRA is trading at relatively low valuation multiples, both in terms of price-to-earnings (P/E) and EBIT. The company’s financial profile is supported by a healthy balance sheet, holding more cash than debt, and it has consistently raised dividends for five consecutive years. These indicators point to resilience in the face of sectoral volatility, supported by long-term structural demand in Indonesia’s property sector.
Overall, CTRA’s current discount to historical averages and robust cash flow health make it an attractive option for investors seeking undervalued property exposure, especially in light of the government’s extension of property VAT incentives.
Source: InvestingPro, Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA) overview page, captured Sept 26, 2025. Disclaimer: Market data shown in the image may be delayed and reflects conditions as of the capture date. Investors should verify the most recent prices and analyst targets before making investment decisions.
Valuation of Pakuwon Jati (PWON)
PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk, or PWON, is trading at Rp382 per share, close to the mid-range of its 52-week performance between Rp304 and Rp530. Analyst consensus places the fair value at Rp537.84 on average, suggesting an upside potential of about 40.8%. Twelve analysts set their price targets between Rp475 and Rp640, while InvestingPro’s valuation models indicate a broader range of Rp457–Rp718.
PWON’s fundamentals appear attractive. The company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, providing strong liquidity and risk management capacity. It has also consistently raised dividends for four consecutive years, underlining management’s confidence in earnings sustainability. In terms of valuation, PWON is trading at low P/E and EBIT multiples relative to expected near-term earnings growth.
On financial health metrics, PWON shows strong scores for cash flow and profitability, signaling resilience in a competitive real estate environment. This positions the stock as a well-balanced play for investors seeking both growth potential and defensive qualities within Indonesia’s property sector.
Source: InvestingPro, Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) overview page, captured Sept 26, 2025. Disclaimer: Market data shown in the image may be delayed and reflects conditions as of the capture date. Investors should verify the most recent prices and analyst targets before making investment decisions.
Valuation of Summarecon Agung (SMRA)
PT Summarecon Agung Tbk, or SMRA, is priced at Rp434 per share, sitting closer to the lower end of its 52-week range between Rp340 and Rp730. The average fair value estimate stands at Rp494.14, reflecting a modest upside potential of 13.9%. Analysts remain divided, with 10 covering the stock and setting targets between Rp400 and Rp910. InvestingPro’s valuation models suggest a range of Rp252–Rp722, reflecting medium uncertainty compared to peers.
SMRA has raised dividends for three consecutive years, underscoring management’s commitment to shareholder returns despite sector volatility. The stock is trading at low EBIT, EBITDA, and earnings multiples, making it appear undervalued relative to near-term earnings expectations.
On financial health metrics, SMRA shows strong profitability but weaker scores in cash flow and price momentum. This suggests that while operational fundamentals are intact, the company faces short-term challenges in sustaining investor interest and liquidity strength.
Overall, SMRA provides investors with a more conservative upside compared to peers like CTRA and PWON. However, its consistent dividend track record and undervaluation multiples offer stability and potential re-rating should demand recover more strongly in 2026.
Source: InvestingPro, Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA) overview page, captured Sept 26, 2025. Disclaimer: Market data shown in the image may be delayed and reflects conditions as of the capture date. Investors should verify the most recent prices and analyst targets before making investment decisions.
Valuation of Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE)
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, or BSDE, is trading at Rp1,060 per share, within its 52-week range of Rp700–Rp1,305. The average fair value estimate is Rp1,428.48, implying an upside potential of 34.8%. Analysts remain constructive, with 13 targets ranging from Rp845 to Rp1,500. InvestingPro models provide a broader valuation band of Rp1,087–Rp1,774, with low uncertainty attached to the forecasts.
BSDE benefits from attractive relative valuation multiples, trading at low P/E, EBIT, and EBITDA ratios compared to expected earnings growth. It is also recognized as a leading player in Indonesia’s real estate management and development industry, giving it scale advantages in project execution and market presence.
Financial health indicators show BSDE as balanced, with modest scores across growth, profitability, and relative value. Cash flow health and price momentum remain weaker compared to peers, suggesting the company may face challenges in near-term liquidity dynamics and investor sentiment. Nevertheless, its established market position and structural demand from its flagship developments provide long-term resilience.
Source: InvestingPro, Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) overview page, captured Sept 26, 2025. Disclaimer: Market data shown in the image may be delayed and reflects conditions as of the capture date. Investors should verify the most recent prices and analyst targets before making investment decisions.