GoTo Edges Closer to Profit as Mobility Slows but Financial Arm Surges
Key Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk, or GOTO, shows a clearer path toward profitability as of Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025, even as growth in its mobility business slows under intensifying competition. Expansion of GoTo Financial and continued cost efficiency are expected to become the company’s main drivers.
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas noted in a research report that Gojek’s gross transaction value grew just 8.8% year on year in the second quarter, a slowdown from an average of 17% in the previous four quarters. Aggressive promotions from competitors in the ride-hailing segment were the main drag, and competition is expected to remain tight going forward.
In contrast, GoTo Financial recorded rapid expansion. Its loan portfolio surged 88% year on year to Rp 6.5 trillion ($401 million), with management targeting Rp 8 trillion ($493 million) in 2025, equivalent to 55% annual growth. Analysts Erindra Krisnawan and Kafi Ananta said momentum has been reinforced by new products such as “GoPay Pinjam,” a lending service integrated with TikTok Shop.
From a profitability standpoint, GoTo booked adjusted EBITDA of Rp 820 billion ($50.6 million) in the first half of 2025, reaching 55% of its full-year target of Rp 1.4–1.6 trillion. The EBITDA margin improved to 0.28% of gross transaction value in the second quarter. Efficiency measures such as a 7.8% decline in cash expenses, driven by lower salary and incentive costs, strengthened the results.
A cloud migration completed in June 2025 is also expected to cut hosting expenses by as much as 50%, further supporting profitability in the second half of the year.
Despite trimming projections for on-demand services to 7% annual growth and loans to Rp 8 trillion this year, BRI Danareksa maintained that GoTo’s profitability track remains solid. Narrowing losses at Tokopedia further boost expectations that the company could deliver a net profit sooner than initially forecast.
Reflecting these adjustments, BRI Danareksa revised its target price for GOTO shares to Rp 100 from Rp 110, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The new target implies 5.9 times price-to-sales for 2025, compared with the current multiple of 4.8 times.
GoTo’s revenue is projected to rise to Rp 17.69 trillion in 2025 from Rp 15.89 trillion a year earlier. Net loss is forecast to shrink sharply to Rp 426 billion from Rp 5.15 trillion in 2024. By 2026, revenue is estimated at Rp 19.86 trillion with a net profit of Rp 635 billion.
Fair Valuation
PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (IDX: GOTO) is currently trading at Rp 60 per share, down 1.64% from the previous session, with its 52-week range between Rp 50 and Rp 89, according to data from Investing.com. Analyst models indicate an average fair value of Rp 71.94, suggesting nearly 20% upside potential, with target estimates ranging from Rp 70 to Rp 140.
The company has bolstered its fundamentals through aggressive share buybacks, holding more cash than debt, and maintaining strong gross profit margins. It remains a prominent player in Indonesia’s broadline retail sector, supported by its Gojek on-demand services and Tokopedia e-commerce platform.
Financial health indicators show fair performance, with stronger growth health (score: 3) but weaker profitability and cash flow metrics (scores: 1 and 2, respectively). Stock price momentum is also rated low (score: 1), though relative valuation appears stronger (score: 3).
The next earnings release is scheduled for Oct 10, 2025, following its most recent report on Aug 12, 2025.
Disclaimer: All data is sourced from Investing.com and reflects the most recent information available at the time of publication.
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