Indonesia’s Rice Output in March Surges Nearly 50%, but Farmer Terms of Trade Drops
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA, investortrust.id – Indonesia’s rice production in March 2025 has surged by 49.90% year-on-year, reaching 5.14 million metric tons—its highest level in years—driven by an expansion in harvested area and favorable growing conditions. However, the gain in output has coincided with a decline in the terms of trade for farmers, as rice prices weakened at the milling level.
The latest data from Statistics Indonesia, or BPS, showed that the March rice output was derived from an estimated 8.93 million tons of milled dry grain, harvested from 1.67 million hectares of paddy fields. This marks a 50.60% increase in harvested area compared to the same period in 2024.
"Based on our conversion, rice production for household consumption in March is projected at 5.14 million tons," said Pudji Ismartini, Deputy for Statistics on Distribution and Services at BPS, during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Jakarta on Friday, May 2, 2025.
Looking ahead, rice production for April to June 2025 is projected at 10.15 million tons, down 9.29% from the same period last year. Nevertheless, total production for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 18.76 million tons, an 11.17% increase over January–June 2024 levels.
Similarly, the cumulative harvested area from January to June 2025 is projected to expand to 6.22 million hectares, up 11.90% from the same period last year. Despite this robust performance in rice cultivation, a decline in rice prices has eroded farmers' purchasing power.
Farmer Welfare Declines as Prices Drop
While rice output strengthened, the average price of rice at milling facilities fell across all quality categories. This pressured the Farmer’s Terms of Trade Index, or NTP, a key welfare indicator.
In April 2025, the NTP fell 2.15% to 121.06. This occurred as the Farmer’s Received Price Index (It) declined by 1.35% to 150.19, while the Farmer’s Paid Price Index (Ib) rose 0.82% to 124.07. Declining prices for key commodities such as palm oil, unmilled rice, rubber, and bird’s eye chili contributed to the downward trend, while increases in electricity tariffs and input costs like red onion, red chili, and old coconuts pushed up expenses.
BPS conducted a nationwide survey in 33 provinces to track rice transactions at the milling level. Premium-quality rice accounted for 37.21% of the market share, followed by medium-quality at 50.35%, submedium at 10.79%, and broken rice at 1.66%.
The average milling price for premium-quality rice in April 2025 was Rp 13,047 per kilogram, down 1.21% from March. Medium-quality rice was priced at Rp 12,555, down 1.16%, while submedium rice stood at Rp 12,547, a drop of 1.10%. Broken rice saw the sharpest decline at Rp 12,358, down 5.23%.
Year-on-year, the average April prices for premium, medium, and broken rice declined by 3.44%, 1.60%, and 0.07%, respectively. Submedium rice was the only category to see a slight increase of 1.37%.