Merdeka Battery (MBMA) Eyes Margin Recovery, Sucor Sets Target Price at Rp640
Main Takeways
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JAKARTA, investortrust.id – PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA) is projected to stage a strong margin recovery over the coming quarters, supported by ramp-up activities at its AIM project and the normalization of nickel production.
According to Andreas Yordan Tarigan, an analyst at Sucor Sekuritas, MBMA is expected to post a net profit of US$25 million in 2025 and soar to US$85 million in 2026, marking annual growth of 10% and 241%, respectively.
“The turnaround will be driven by the full commissioning of four plants under the Acid, Iron, and Metals (AIM) project in the second half of 2025, along with a gradual rebound in margins,” Tarigan stated in a recent report.
Sucor Sekuritas has reaffirmed its BUY recommendation for MBMA shares, setting a target price of Rp640, citing long-term growth prospects underpinned by strategic partnerships and a recovery in global nickel prices.
Operational Outlook Backed by Strategic Assets
The earnings outlook is further supported by MBMA’s extensive nickel reserves and its partnership with Tsingshan Group, a major Chinese nickel producer, which bolsters the company's long-term expansion capacity.
In addition to the AIM ramp-up, MBMA holds a 27% stake in a high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) joint venture, which produced 4,569 tons of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and sold 2,184 tons in March 2025. The average selling price stood at US$12,149 per ton, with a post-cobalt cash cost of US$9,874 per ton.
MBMA has also initiated a new JV named Sulawesi Nickel Cobalt (SLNC) HPAL, where it holds a 23% stake. The SLNC project is expected to begin operations in the second half of 2027, with an annual production target of 90,000 tons of nickel in MHP form.
Short-Term Pressures Remain, But Recovery on Horizon
Earlier this year, MBMA reported a first-quarter revenue decline of 18% year-on-year to US$366 million, a 21% drop from the previous quarter. This was largely in line with analyst estimates, representing 24% of the full-year target and 22% of consensus forecasts.
The company posted a net loss of US$0.6 million, reversing a net profit of US$4 million in the same period last year. The loss was primarily due to reduced nickel pig iron (NPI) sales volumes caused by factory maintenance and slower mining activities.
Operating margins weakened across most business segments, with lower average selling prices (ASP) and declining sales volumes placing downward pressure on earnings. NPI, MBMA’s main revenue contributor, was the hardest hit.