Purbaya Sees Q1 Growth Near 6% as Airlangga Targets 8% Takeoff

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Indonesia’s economy could grow between 5.5% and 6% in the first quarter of 2026 on Friday, Feb 13, 2026 in Jakarta as the government accelerated Rp 809 trillion in state spending and expanded social programs to lift consumption and investment, a move expected to help the country break out of its long-standing 5% growth pattern. He delivered the projection at the Indonesia Economic Outlook 2026 at Wisma Danantara.

“Our prediction is that in the first quarter the economy can grow between 5.5% and 6%,” Purbaya said. He described the figure as extraordinary if realized, signaling a shift beyond the 5% growth range seen in recent years.

He said the government front-loaded expenditure early in the year, including Rp 62 trillion for the free nutritious meal program. Additional stimulus packages and investment incentives were also deployed to sustain momentum.

.

“We are pushing investment and consumption. There is acceleration of the free nutritious meal program worth Rp 62 trillion, along with other spending and stimulus,” he said.

Purbaya added that fiscal policy was positioned as a countercyclical instrument, allowing the deficit to widen from around 2.5% toward 2.9% of gross domestic product while keeping the ceiling at 3%. He stressed that debt remained manageable and fiscal prudence was maintained.

“We are slightly sacrificing the fiscal side through a higher deficit, but without compromising prudence,” he said.

He also noted that investor confidence remained relatively stable despite global volatility. Capital inflows continued in November, December, and January, even amid fluctuations in the capital market.

Preparing for economic takeoff

Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said the government was preparing Indonesia’s economy to “take off” within the next two years. He reiterated the longer-term ambition of achieving 8% growth through structural reform and new growth engines.

“We nearly took off in 1998 but were disrupted by international turmoil. Now we are preparing the production engines so that within two years we can truly lift off,” Airlangga said.

He identified government spending, private investment, and innovative financing through Danantara as key drivers. The government also pushed financial market deepening, including raising the minimum public free float of listed shares from 7.5% to 15% to strengthen liquidity.

In addition, the ceiling for pension and insurance fund investment in high-quality stocks such as those in the LQ45 index was increased from 10% to 20%. “The capital market is a financial window and has rebounded and stabilized,” Airlangga said.

For 2026, the government targeted growth of 5.4% to 5.6%, supported by agriculture, manufacturing, digital sectors, and energy. Priority programs such as free nutritious meals and large-scale housing development were expected to generate employment and broaden domestic demand.