TINS Target Raised to Rp 4,800 as Earnings Inflection Looms

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Timah Tbk or TINS is set to enter an earnings inflection phase in fiscal 2026 as operations normalize and global tin prices remain firm, prompting BRI Danareksa Sekuritas to raise its target price to Rp 4,800 on Monday, Feb 23, 2026 in Jakarta, a move that lifted the stock 5.10% to Rp 4,130.

The upward revision reflects improving operational momentum after production constraints weighed on performance in 2025.

Operational Recovery Gains Traction

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas said fourth-quarter 2025 results showed a stronger production run rate, laying the groundwork for a 30,000-ton output target in 2026, with potential upside if revisions to the company’s work plan and budget are approved.

In 2025, TINS produced 17,800 tons due to permitting constraints that limited operations.

The brokerage noted the company’s installed smelter capacity stands at around 75,000 tons per year, providing room for higher utilization once ore supply stabilizes.

TINS also holds approximately Rp 1.4 trillion in seized assets, including refined tin, tin ore and cash, which have yet to be recorded on its books and could add incremental value.

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Earnings Outlook Adjusted

Despite the more constructive medium-term outlook, the brokerage trimmed its 2026 revenue forecast by 18% to Rp 21.4 trillion, citing lower assumed sales volume of 30,000 tons instead of 35,000 tons amid risks tied to regulatory approvals and ore flow normalization.

Cash cost assumptions were raised to $28,900 per ton to reflect higher ore procurement expenses of around Rp 300,000 per ton and potential adjustments to government reference pricing.

As a result, EBITDA projections were revised down 29%, while net profit was cut 35% to around Rp 3 trillion for the year.

Still, the brokerage said cash margins remain aligned with management guidance of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton, based on an average selling price assumption of $40,000 per ton.

Tin Price Tailwinds

The improved investment case also rests on resilient global tin prices, which have hovered at elevated levels amid supply tightness and demand linked to electronics and renewable energy supply chains.

Indonesia is one of the world’s largest tin producers, and production discipline in recent years has contributed to price strength.

For investors, the story now hinges on whether operational normalization can unlock the company’s latent capacity and translate firm commodity prices into sustained earnings growth.

Consensus Expectations

InvestingPro’s valuation dashboard suggests that PT Timah Tbk or TINS is currently trading above its modeled fair value despite the recent rally. The stock was last quoted at around Rp 4,170, close to its 52-week high of Rp 4,380, while InvestingPro’s average fair value estimate stands at Rp 3,478.74, implying a potential downside of 16.6% from prevailing levels.

The model-based valuation range spans roughly Rp 2,579 to Rp 5,547, reflecting medium uncertainty and highlighting the sensitivity of intrinsic value to assumptions on tin prices, production normalization and cost structure.

Analyst targets tracked on the platform cluster around Rp 4,100, with a range between Rp 3,400 and Rp 4,700, suggesting that while near-term optimism has lifted sentiment, consensus expectations remain more conservative than the most bullish scenario.

On financial health metrics, the company scores in the “good performance” bracket, supported by solid price momentum and growth indicators, though cash flow and relative value metrics remain more moderate.

Taken together, InvestingPro’s framework portrays TINS as a cyclical recovery story whose market price already reflects a significant portion of the anticipated operational rebound, leaving valuation sensitive to execution and sustained tin price strength.