Antam Outlook Raised as Analysts Lift Earnings and Share Target
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Aneka Tambang Tbk or ANTM sees its financial performance outlook revised upward on Tuesday, Jan 20, 2026 in Jakarta as analysts factor in recovering gold supply and resilient nickel prices, a shift expected to lift earnings momentum into fiscal year 2026. The upgrade has also pushed Antam’s share price target higher, reinforcing a positive market view on the state miner.
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas revised its target price for ANTM to Rp 4,800 from Rp 4,100 and maintained a Buy recommendation, citing stronger operational assumptions and management guidance. The brokerage said the outlook improvement reflected both commodity price dynamics and policy support for domestic supply.
The brokerage revised Antam’s 2025 revenue forecast to Rp 97.13 trillion from Rp 89.76 trillion, while net profit estimates rose to Rp 8.09 trillion from Rp 7.94 trillion. For 2026, projected revenue was lifted to Rp 102.56 trillion from Rp 92.64 trillion, with net profit revised up to Rp 8.90 trillion from Rp 7.91 trillion.
Gold sales were expected to normalize at around 38 tons in 2026 as imports resumed in November 2025, with imported gold estimated at about 10 tons. Analysts projected imported gold would account for roughly 30 percent of total sales volume in 2026–2027, down sharply from an estimated 64 percent in 2025.
Domestic gold supply was forecast to rise by around 17 percent, or about 7 tons, supported by recovering output from PT Freeport Indonesia, which was projected to supply 15–20 tons. “Several policies, such as domestic market obligations and gold export taxes, are supportive for increasing Antam’s gold supply,” analysts wrote in the research note.
Beyond gold, BRI Danareksa said nickel ore sales would remain the main profit driver for ANTM in 2026–2027, contributing an estimated 50–55 percent of net profit. Antam was reported to have secured a nickel ore RKAB quota of around 20 million tons for 2026, up from the prior assumption of 18 million tons.
The brokerage added that Indonesia’s plan to cut national nickel production to about 140 million tons was expected to support higher ore prices in the range of $50–55 per wet metric ton. Meanwhile, ferronickel sales volumes were projected to stay stable at around 10,000 tons in 2026–2027, despite margin pressure from mismatches between benchmark and realized prices.
In the bauxite and alumina segment, Antam’s Smelter Grade Alumina facility in Mempawah was expected to absorb 3–5 million tons of bauxite per year in 2026–2027, adding another layer of earnings support.