BCA Seen as Most Defensive Bank as Analysts Flag Strong 2026 Outlook

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s banking industry enters 2026 with a more moderate recovery outlook as liquidity normalizes and interest rates adjust, while asset quality remains a key structural challenge for the sector. Against this backdrop, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk or BBCA is widely viewed by analysts as the most defensive bank in the market due to its strong balance sheet and resilient earnings profile.

Among banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, BBCA is considered best positioned to withstand sector volatility, supported by improving credit metrics in 2025. The bank’s loan at risk ratio improved to 4.8 percent from 5.3 percent previously, signaling strengthening asset quality.

During the same period, BBCA’s non-performing loan ratio remained well contained at 1.7 percent, while provisioning levels stayed robust at 183.8 percent for NPLs and 71.6 percent for loans at risk. Net profit also rose 4.9 percent to Rp 57.5 trillion in 2025 from Rp 54.84 trillion a year earlier, underscoring earnings resilience.

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas said asset quality remains the key differentiator across Indonesian banks as sector-wide non-performing loans have yet to fully exit an upward cycle. The brokerage warned that delinquency risks remain elevated, particularly in consumer and micro, small, and medium enterprise lending segments.

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“We assess that non-performing loans may still be in an upcycle phase in 2026, with higher delinquency risks coming from consumer and MSME loans,” BRI Danareksa analysts Victor Stefano and Naura Reyhan Muchlis wrote in their January 2026 banking sector report.

In this environment, the brokerage named BBCA as its top pick, citing safer income composition and stronger asset quality relative to peers. BRI Danareksa maintained a buy recommendation on BBCA shares with a target price of Rp 10,800.

A similar view was expressed by CGS International, which said operating conditions for banks remain challenging, but institutions with disciplined risk management are likely to be more resilient. The firm highlighted improving profit prospects in 2026, supported by credit growth and an expected reversal in funding cost trends.

“We maintain an overweight recommendation on the sector as we see better net profit prospects in 2026, driven by higher loan volumes and an improving trend in funding costs,” CGS analysts Handy Noverdanius, Owen Tjandra, and Elizabeth Noviana wrote in their December 2025 report.

CGS also placed BBCA as its top pick, pointing to its focus on wholesale banking, which is expected to benefit from improving business sentiment and foreign fund inflows. The brokerage set a target price of Rp 10,700 on BBCA with an add or buy recommendation.