Trade Surplus Holds Firm as Indonesia Eyes Boost from Underused FTAs

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia records a trade surplus on Monday, Dec 1, 2025 in Jakarta as the country enters its 66th month of positive trade performance, supported by palm oil, minerals, and steel, while the government urges exporters to maximize free trade agreements to strengthen future export growth, a development expected to enhance long term competitiveness. The surplus remains intact despite a sharp monthly decline that reflects weaker crude oil and refined product shipments.

The national statistics agency said Indonesia recorded the goods trade balance recorded a surplus of $2.39 billion in October 2025 as both exports and imports eased, BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Pudji Ismartini said during a briefing in Jakarta. The surplus narrowed by almost 45 percent from September and declined on a yearly basis.

Non oil and gas exports formed the backbone of the surplus at $4.31 billion, driven by palm based oils, mineral products, and iron and steel. At the same time, Pudji noted a steep downturn in oil and gas performance. "At the same time, the oil and gas trade balance recorded a deficit of $1.92 billion," she said. Crude oil and refined products were the main drags.

Export performance across major commodities showed mixed trends. Palm oil and its derivatives surged 25.73 percent in value between January and October 2025, and steel exports climbed more than 12 percent. Pudji said price dynamics differed by commodity. "The price of palm oil commodities increased by 0.8 percent on a monthly basis, but recorded a yearly decline of 2.99 percent," she said. Coal exports weakened sharply despite a modest monthly price rise. "For coal prices specifically, they increased by 1.11 percent on a monthly basis but recorded a yearly decline of 26.69 percent," she added.

Total exports reached $24.24 billion in October, down 2.21 percent from a year earlier, driven by a steep fall in oil and gas shipments. Pudji said crude oil remained the key source of weakness. "The annual decline in October 2025 export value was mainly driven by a drop in oil and gas exports, particularly crude oil," she said. Crude shipments fell more than 54 percent, while refined products and gas also dropped.

Nonoil and gas exports slipped only slightly as manufacturing exports rose 6.06 percent and offset a deep contraction in mining exports, which dropped more than 30 percent. The decline in mineral shipments reflected lower volumes of copper ore, coal, lignite, zirconium, niobium, tantalum, and other materials.

Trade Minister Budi Santoso said the long running surplus should be seen as a foundation to push exporters toward better use of Indonesia’s trade agreements, which remain significantly underutilized. "Well, when the government has opened market access and established agreements, all of you must be proactive. Because the utilization of CEPA or FTA is on average only around 80 percent," he said at a forum on export expansion.

Budi said exporters faced minimal procedural barriers, including automatic certificates of origin and zero tariff MFN access in many partner markets. "So there is no such thing as exporters not knowing. We do not even need to conduct outreach on certificates of origin because they are already automatic. What we need to socialize is how you can obtain or find trading partners in countries that have established agreements," he said.

He encouraged exporters to use digital matchmaking tools and rely on official support from embassies and trade attachés. "Technology has advanced now, so online business matching can be done in my view. With support from the government, from trade attachés, from embassies, and from ambassadors, I believe buyers will have confidence," he said.

Economists said the October moderation did not alter the broader picture of trade strength, supported by manufacturing momentum and steady demand from key partners. They added that improved use of trade agreements could diversify markets and reduce dependence on commodity cycles, helping Indonesia maintain a stable surplus heading into 2026.