Indonesia’s Crude Price Rises to $66.81 per Barrel in September 2025 Amid Geopolitical Tensions
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s crude oil benchmark, the Indonesian Crude Price, or ICP, has risen to $66.81 per barrel in September 2025, marking an increase of $0.73 from August’s $66.07 per barrel. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said the rise reflected growing geopolitical tensions that have rattled global oil markets.
Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry, Laode Sulaeman, said the figure was formalized through Ministerial Decree No. 336.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2025 signed on Oct. 8, 2025. He explained that the September increase in ICP, along with the strengthening of Brent (ICE) and the OPEC Basket, was mainly driven by the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions.
“The rise in ICP reflects the market’s reaction to ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly those linked to the Russia-Ukraine war,” Laode said at the Directorate General of Oil and Gas office in Jakarta on Friday, Oct. 17, 2025.
He added that since June, Ukrainian attacks have forced about 17% of Russian refineries to halt operations, tightening supply across the global market. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden’s call for the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian goods as part of a broader effort to raise the economic cost of the war and pressure Moscow to withdraw has further supported price gains.
In addition to the conflict in Eastern Europe, tensions in the Middle East have also underpinned crude price movements. Brent futures have strengthened as regional security risks intensified. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast upward to 740,000 barrels per day year-on-year, compared with 680,000 barrels per day in its previous monthly report.
Despite the rise in Indonesia’s crude benchmark, major global oil prices such as Dated Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined slightly, as OPEC+ increased its supply. The group agreed to add 137,000 barrels per day of production starting in October 2025, while total output in August rose by 509,000 barrels per day, led mainly by Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
In the Asia-Pacific region, crude prices were influenced by higher Asian naphtha crack spreads, maintenance activities in several Middle Eastern refineries, and the expected recovery of oil demand in India following the end of the monsoon season.
During September, the average Dated Brent price slipped by $0.19 to $68.02 per barrel, while WTI (Nymex) decreased by $0.49 to $63.53 per barrel. Brent (ICE) edged up by $0.31 to $67.58 per barrel, and the OPEC Basket rose by $0.72 to $70.45 per barrel. In line with these movements, Indonesia’s ICP increased by $0.73 to $66.81 per barrel.
Indonesia’s ICP climbed in September 2025 due to sustained geopolitical tensions, with supply disruptions in Russia and US trade measures against China and India amplifying market volatility.
The IEA’s upward revision of oil demand growth signaled a tighter supply-demand balance, though OPEC+’s decision to boost production limited further price gains. The combination of these forces placed Indonesia’s crude benchmark firmly above $66 per barrel, reflecting cautious optimism in the market despite persistent uncertainties.