BBTN Stock Surges 20% as Biggest Beneficiary of Rp 200 Trillion Government Fund Placement
Key Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Shares of PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk, or BBTN, have surged 20% over the past five trading days, making it the biggest beneficiary of the government’s Rp 200 trillion ($12.4 billion) fund placement in state banks. The fresh liquidity is expected to lower the bank’s cost of funds, boost net interest margin, and strengthen its housing loan franchise.
Analysts from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, Naura Reyhan Muchlis and Victor Stefano, wrote in a report published Monday, Sept 15, 2025, that the government deposits could reduce banks’ cost of funds by 1 to 13 basis points. BBTN, they noted, stands to gain the most as the government’s deposit allocation is equivalent to 6.2% of its third-party funds, potentially bringing its cost of funds below 4%.
“If banks are not required to chase credit growth, they could reduce funding costs by 1–13 bps, with BBTN as the largest beneficiary given its high proportion of government funds relative to time deposits. If these deposits replace high-interest term deposits, for example at 6.5%, the cost of funds could decline by 8–16 bps, with BBNI and BBTN gaining the most,” the report said.
Analysts lift recommendations
A similar view came from Mandiri Sekuritas analysts Kresna Hutabarat and Boby Kristanto Chandra, who said BBTN and BBNI would be the top beneficiaries, followed by BRI, Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS), and Bank Mandiri (BMRI). “This liquidity injection program could also encourage industrywide loan growth while lowering funding costs,” they wrote in their daily note.
Rudiyanto, Director of Panin Asset Management, added on his social media post that BBTN could see an earnings uplift equivalent to 0.43%, or around 14.29% of its 2024 net income, if Rp 25 trillion of government deposits were channeled into loans.
“The government’s fund placement in banks to be disbursed as loans is a positive sentiment for the economy. It can reduce lending rates and push down deposit rates,” he wrote.
The Ministry of Finance has formalized the program under Decree No. 276/2025, placing Rp 55 trillion each in BRI, BNI, and Bank Mandiri, Rp 25 trillion in BBTN, and Rp 10 trillion in BSI. The funds are held as on-call deposits.
BBTN rallies ahead of peers
The announcement has fueled a rally in banking shares. BBTN jumped 20.35% in five days, from Rp 1,155 on Sept 8 to Rp 1,390 on Sept 15. The gain far outpaced other lenders: BRI rose 6.15% to Rp 4,140, BNI climbed 5.50% to Rp 4,410, BCA gained 4.22% to Rp 8,025, BRIS rose 3.88% to Rp 2,680, and Bank Mandiri advanced just 0.89% to Rp 4,530.
Samuel Sekuritas upgraded its recommendation on BBTN to “buy,” raising its target price to Rp 1,600. The brokerage cited improving net interest margins, stronger credit growth targets, and solid first-half 2025 results.
The new target reflects a 2025F price-to-book value multiple of 0.48x, factoring in management’s decision to raise credit growth guidance to 7–9% from 7–8% and deposit growth to 8–10%. Supportive government housing programs such as the Mortgage Liquidity Facility (FLPP) and Housing People’s Business Credit (KUR Perumahan) remain key drivers.
Source: InvestingPro. Data current as of time of publication.
Valuation Assessment
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) is currently trading at Rp 1,340, implying a potential upside of around 25% from its fair value estimate of Rp 1,680 based on InvestingPro’s models. The bank’s stock has moved within a 52-week range of Rp 755 to Rp 1,545, with analyst targets clustered between Rp 800 and Rp 1,600. Despite recent gains, BBTN continues to trade at relatively low earnings multiples compared with its state-owned peers, suggesting valuation remains attractive.
Financial health indicators highlight mixed signals: the bank has maintained consistent dividend growth for four years and delivered strong weekly returns, yet it shows weaker cash flow resilience and modest profitability compared with sector averages. Overall, BBTN appears undervalued with room for price appreciation if government fund placement and housing credit expansion translate into stronger margins and earnings.
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