Sido Muncul Price Target Cut to Rp 650, Analysts Maintain 'Buy' on Earnings Rebound
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — The target price for shares of PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk, or SIDO, has been revised downward from Rp 800 to Rp 650. However, analysts at Samuel Sekuritas have reiterated their 'Buy' recommendation, citing a potential upside of around 25% from the last closing price of Rp 520.
The revision follows the company’s underwhelming financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, which prompted a downward adjustment to its full-year outlook.
Samuel Sekuritas analysts Kenzie Keane and Jonathan Guyadi noted that despite the cut, SIDO’s recent performance offers a promising recovery trajectory, particularly after a stronger-than-expected second quarter.
SIDO posted a net profit of Rp 368 billion in the second quarter, up sharply from Rp 233 billion in the first quarter. Revenue also rose significantly from Rp 789 billion to Rp 1.04 trillion over the same period.
Gross margin improved from 52.3% to 60.5%, while net profit margin strengthened from 29.5% to 35.4%. The herbal segment, which accounts for approximately 75% of total revenue, demonstrated strong growth, driven largely by increased volume.
In contrast, revenue from food and beverage (F&B) dropped to Rp 284 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year and 29.4% quarter-on-quarter. This was attributed to weaker demand for energy drinks and reduced mining activity.
Export contribution grew to 9.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, up from 6.8% in the same period last year, indicating growing international traction.
Management expects stronger sales in the second half, driven by new product launches in domestic and export markets, increased marketing spending, government stimulus, and a potential rebound in energy drink sales as mining operations and harvest season pick up.
Samuel Sekuritas projects SIDO will book a net profit of Rp 1.19 trillion for the full year, slightly higher than the Rp 1.17 trillion posted in 2024. Revenue is expected to rise from Rp 3.91 trillion to Rp 4.05 trillion.
Below Fair Value
Based on Investing.com’s latest valuation models, Sido Muncul (SIDO) is currently trading below its estimated fair value. The average fair value stands at Rp 678.01, indicating a potential upside of 29.1% from the current market price of Rp 525.00. Among 15 valuation models used, the estimated price range spans from Rp 522.20 to Rp 787.86, with low uncertainty.
Analyst consensus from 11 analysts places the target at Rp 586.82, further supporting the upside case. Despite recent earnings pressures, the stock benefits from strong financial fundamentals, including high profitability, solid cash flow health, and robust gross margins, though its momentum score remains low.
Source: Investing.com, updated as of publication time
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