Indonesia Crude Price Slips to $61.10 as Global Oil Oversupply Deepens
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s average crude oil price Indonesian Crude Price fell to $61.10 per barrel on Friday, Jan 16, 2026 in Jakarta as mounting global oversupply concerns intensified pressure on energy markets, reducing state oil revenue expectations.
The benchmark declined $1.73 per barrel from November 2025 as higher output from the United States, OPEC plus producers, and Russia coincided with weakening demand growth in Asia Pacific.
The December price was formalized through a decree issued by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on Jan 9, 2026, setting the official reference for state crude sales.
Market pressure stemmed from what traders described as a looming super glut, with global supply projected to exceed demand by as much as 4 million barrels per day in 2026, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency.
Indonesia’s oil price weakness also reflected rising output across OPEC plus members, as well as sustained high production in the United States, which continued to cap price recovery despite geopolitical risks.
Energy Ministry official Laode Sulaiman said easing Russia Ukraine tensions added to bearish sentiment, while Russia projected crude output to rise to 10.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 10.54 million barrels per day in 2026.
He noted that OPEC plus crude production in November 2025 increased to 43.065 million barrels per day on a month over month basis, reinforcing global supply expansion.
OPEC also revised its outlook for non OPEC plus supply growth in 2025 to 0.95 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels from the prior estimate, according to its December publication.
At the same time, S&P Global trimmed its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day, signaling softer consumption trends.
In Asia Pacific, oil prices were further pressured by China’s refinery throughput, which fell 0.9 percent month over month in November 2025 to 14.86 million barrels per day, the lowest level in six months.
Global benchmarks reflected the downturn, with Dated Brent sliding to $62.70 per barrel, WTI to $57.87 per barrel, ICE Brent to $61.64 per barrel, and the OPEC Basket to $61.85 per barrel in December.
The Indonesian crude benchmark tracked the broader decline, reinforcing expectations that oil markets may remain under pressure well into 2026.