VinFast Projects EV Market Share to Eclipse 20% in Indonesia by 2026

BADUNG, Indonesia — VinFast, the Vietnamese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, is betting on a rapid acceleration of Indonesia’s green energy transition. Speaking at the V-Creator Summit 2025 in Bali, VinFast Indonesia CEO Kariyanto Hardjosoemarto forecasted that EV penetration in the national automotive market will surpass 20% in 2026, a significant leap from the 12–13% estimated for 2024.

“By the close of this year, we expect EV contribution to hover around 12–13%,” Hardjosoemarto said. “However, we are confident that next year, that figure will exceed 20% of the total industry volume.”

While the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo) has set a conservative sales target of approximately 780,000 units for 2025, Hardjosoemarto predicts a modest rise in total industry volume (TIV) to between 800,000 and 820,000 units in 2026. Despite the slow growth in overall vehicle sales, the CEO emphasized that the internal composition of the market is shifting aggressively toward electric mobility.

The optimism is backed by historical data: EV market share stood at just 4.9% in 2024 before nearly tripling in 2025. “To us, this is a very positive indicator of market readiness,” Hardjosoemarto added.

VinFast’s Expansion Strategy

To capitalize on this growth, VinFast is ramping up its domestic footprint. The company recently operationalized a manufacturing facility in Subang, West Java, with a production capacity of 50,000 units per year. Beyond manufacturing, the 2026 strategy focuses on infrastructure, by expanding the dealer network and partner workshops.

It also pursues ecosystem development, like investing in charging stations in collaboration with entities like Telkom Property. Lastly, VinFast puts emphasis on financial innovation strategy, by continuing its unique battery subscription model and Resale Value Guarantee (RVG) to lower the barrier to entry for skeptical consumers.

“Our goal is to be a top-three player, if not the market leader, in the Indonesian EV segment,” the CEO stated.

A Contrarian View

However, not all industry experts share this bullish outlook. Automotive analyst Yannes Martinus Pasaribu warns of a potential slowdown in 2026. Pasaribu points to the government’s plan to phase out specific incentives, such as 0% import duties and luxury tax (PPnBM) exemptions for Completely Built-Up (CBU) imported EVs.

“The market might see a slight dip,” Pasaribu cautioned, noting that the policy shift is intended to force manufacturers to increase Local Content Requirements (TKDN). For brands unable to localize production quickly, prices may rise, potentially cooling consumer demand.