Mayapada Hospital Shares Seen as Potential MSCI Candidate With 58% Upside
Key Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Shares of PT Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Tbk, or SRAJ, operator of Mayapada Hospital, have gained fresh momentum as analysts highlight the stock’s potential inclusion in the MSCI large-cap index. The outlook is reinforced by the group’s aggressive expansion, the entry of Bain Capital as a shareholder, and a strategic partnership with Mayapada Apollo.
Samuel Sekuritas has maintained its buy recommendation on SRAJ with a target price of Rp 13,150 per share, representing a potential upside of 58.4% from Tuesday’s close at Rp 8,450. The stock has already climbed more than 70% in the past month, suggesting strong investor interest ahead of a possible index reclassification.
Kenzie Keane and Jonathan Guyadi, analysts at Samuel Sekuritas, noted that Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya is among Indonesia’s leading private hospital operators with seven facilities located in prime residential areas such as Lebak Bulus, Kuningan in South Jakarta, and Batununggal in Bandung. These locations are positioned to capture demand from middle- to upper-income households.
The analysts emphasized that momentum in the company’s financial performance was bolstered by the February 2025 entry of Bain Capital, a United States–based private equity firm, as a shareholder.
“The participation of a global private equity investor underscores confidence in SRAJ’s assets, which are supported by leading doctors, advanced medical equipment, and robotic technology,” they wrote in a recent research note.
Samuel Sekuritas projects that the company’s EBITDA will accelerate at a compound annual growth rate of 31% between 2025 and 2027. EBITDA margins are expected to improve by one to three percentage points annually from 2025, supported by higher case intensity and new hospital openings.
Expansion plans include a new hospital in Jakarta Garden City, Cakung, slated for 2026 and an additional 150 beds at the Lebak Bulus facility. In 2027, the company expects to open Mayapada Apollo Batam International Hospital. These developments will increase SRAJ’s hospital network from seven to nine units, raising total bed capacity by 42% to about 1,750.
Beyond company-specific growth drivers, analysts cited Indonesia’s broader healthcare potential. Hospital and doctor density remains low compared with neighboring countries, while healthcare spending per capita also lags behind peers, offering a long runway for growth.
Source: InvestingPro, data as of publication time.
High Momentum Meets Expensive Risk
Despite Samuel Sekuritas’ bullish target of Rp 13,150 per share, which implies a 58% upside from current levels, fair value models suggest a much lower average valuation of around Rp 4,181, indicating as much as 50% potential downside.
This divergence reflects both the strong momentum-driven rally—SRAJ has surged more than 70% in the past month—and the market’s high expectations for its expansion.
However, technical indicators show the stock is already in overbought territory, while analysts do not expect the company to turn a profit this year and project a drop in net income. The valuation therefore hinges on whether hospital expansions and Bain Capital’s entry can translate into sustained profitability, or whether current prices are running ahead of fundamentals.
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