Tin Miners Brace for Impact: How Indonesia’s Shifting Royalty Rules Create Winners and Losers

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s mining landscape is bracing for a seismic shift in fiscal policy that could leave the nation's tin sector reeling while sparing its high-profile nickel industry. As the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) debates a radical overhaul of royalty structures, investors are frantically re-calculating the valuations of Jakarta’s commodity heavyweights.

The proposed revisions to Government Regulation (PP) No. 19/2025 introduce a "progressive" tariff system based on benchmark prices (HMA). For global markets, this means Indonesian supply costs are now tethered directly to commodity spikes. While the state aims to capture windfall gains from high mineral prices, the sheer scale of the hike for specific minerals—like tin—could fundamentally break the investment thesis for state-backed miners.

The Tin Sector Under Siege

State-controlled PT Timah Tbk (TINS), the country’s flagship tin producer, stands at the epicenter of the regulatory storm. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas warns that if tin prices exceed $50,000 per ton, the royalty rate could double from 10% to a staggering 20%.

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The fallout would be devastating. Analysts project TINS’s royalty burden could balloon by Rp 2.3 trillion ($144.6 million) in 2026 alone. This would trigger a projected 42% plummet in net profit, slashing the company's net profit margin from a healthy 16% to a lean 9%. In response, analysts have demoted TINS to the bottom of their sector preference list.

Nickel Players Escape the Brunt

Conversely, the "nickel boom" appears insulated from the harshest tax bites. Aneka Tambang (ANTM)—the diversified state-owned miner—is expected to see its profit dip by a mere 2%, thanks to a more resilient revenue base.

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) and Nickel Industries Indonesia Tbk (NCKL) are also poised to weather the storm, with the latter seeing a negligible 0.1% hit to its bottom line. This disparity makes nickel plays a "tactical safe haven" for those still looking to play the Indonesian mineral story.

The Bahlil Pivot: A Temporary Reprieve?

Amid the growing panic, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia has signaled a tactical retreat. Speaking at the Ministry’s secretariat on May 11, 2026, Bahlil confirmed the government is delaying the June implementation to avoid "burdening" the industry.

"I think I will delay to build a good formulation, one that is mutually beneficial. The state must profit, but the entrepreneurs must also profit," Bahlil stated. He emphasized that the current proposal was merely a "public test" and that the government is open to revisions. "Once the input is not good, we will immediately conduct a revision," he added, directly addressing the market's negative response.

Investment Outlook: Treading Carefully

Despite the short-term reprieve, the regulatory "sword of Damocles" hangs over the sector. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has shifted its short-term tactical view to "Neutral," citing not just royalty risks but also talks of a "windfall tax" and rising fuel costs.

For now, ANTM remains the "Top Pick" due to its diversification, with a target price of Rp 4,900 ($0.31). Other recommendations include INCO (TP: Rp 8,000) and MBMA (TP: Rp 880), as the market waits to see if Bahlil’s new "win-win" formula will favor the state’s coffers or the miners’ balance sheets.