Indonesia Eyes 2026 With “Sumitronomics” Confidence: BI's Perry Warjiyo

JAKARTA, investortrust.id — Indonesia enters 2026 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, as Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo unveiled a wide-ranging policy direction anchored in “Sumitronomics,” a framework rooted in the ideas of economist Sumitro Djojohadikusumo and revived to guide Indonesia through a turbulent global landscape.

Perry said the central bank will rely on a strengthened alignment of national policy, downstream industrialization, capital-market development, digital acceleration, and external cooperation to secure momentum next year. “Synergy across five key areas is essential to face next year’s economic challenges,” he said during Bank Indonesia’s Annual Meeting in Jakarta on Friday. He explained that the essence of Sumitronomics is stability that remains dynamic. “Stability that remains dynamic, with prices kept under control, the rupiah stable, the economy moving quickly, and the people receiving the benefit. That is what Sumitronomics means,” he said.

Perry warned that global uncertainty remains elevated. He pointed to US protectionism and unresolved geopolitical tensions that continue to cast a shadow over global markets. “It is important to remain sober-minded and vigilant, just like the advice of Ronggowarsito,” he said. He added that global prospects remain subdued through 2026 and 2027 due to persistent risks including weaker world trade, slowing growth in the United States and China, and mounting fiscal and financial vulnerabilities in advanced economies. “Meanwhile, Europe, India, and Indonesia remain in relatively good condition,” he said.

He warned that these pressures could spill into emerging markets through volatile capital flows and currency weakness. To address those risks, Perry said Indonesia’s policy response must be anchored in stability through closer coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. “With such synergy, God willing, Indonesia’s economic performance in 2026 and 2027 will be better,” he said.

In his second presentation at the same event, Perry stressed that sustained high growth depends on transforming the real sector through higher investment, stronger labor productivity, and targeted industrial development. “The way to do this is by increasing capital, labor, and productivity,” he said. He emphasized that industrial policy must reinforce downstreaming across key commodities such as nickel, copper, bauxite, tin, rare earth minerals, and manufacturing segments including automotive, batteries, petrochemicals, semiconductors, garments, and footwear. “Industrialization requires large-scale financing,” he said. He added that Indonesia’s investment climate must improve through faster bureaucracy, integrated infrastructure, and special economic zones as new growth centers.

Perry underscored that Bank Indonesia will support these structural programs by purchasing high-quality bonds in the secondary market, providing hedging facilities, and enabling securitization in the money market. “Bank Indonesia will support industrialization through these mechanisms,” he said.

The central bank also set a credit growth target of 8–12 percent for 2026 and expanded macroprudential liquidity incentives to Rp423 trillion starting December. “We are raising the amount of liquidity incentives to Rp423 trillion beginning this December,” Perry said. He added that BI will push banks to accelerate lending-rate cuts by offering stronger liquidity incentives to institutions that reduce interest rates more quickly.

Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro told Investortrust that the bank’s own forecast is broadly aligned with BI’s projection. “This means around 9 percent to 10 percent. That range is achievable next year,” he said. Andry noted that credit momentum weakened this year after a slowdown in household and government spending in the first half of 2025. “Next year, assuming the government ramps up growth again in the first and second quarters—as the Finance Minister stated—this should support the momentum for credit expansion,” he said.

The policy direction laid out by the central bank suggests that Indonesia is entering 2026 with confidence anchored in structural reforms, downstreaming, stronger investment flows, and improved global financial conditions. Yet Perry repeatedly emphasized that such optimism must be paired with vigilance. As he put it, Indonesia must advance “with confidence while remaining vigilant,” ensuring that stability and transformation move in tandem.