Finance Minister Confident Indonesia’s Economy Will Rebound to 5.5% Growth in Q4 2025

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BOGOR, Investortrust.id — Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has expressed confidence that Indonesia’s economy will rebound strongly in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth expected to reach 5.5% year-on-year, supported by the government’s Rp 200 trillion stimulus disbursed late in the third quarter.

Speaking at a media briefing in Bogor, West Java, on Friday, Oct 10, 2025, Purbaya responded to projections released by the Directorate General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy under Febrio Kacaribu, which forecasted third-quarter growth of 5.1% year-on-year — a figure he described as “quite high.”

“Oh, 5.1%? That’s actually high,” Purbaya said in surprise. “I expected it to be slightly lower because of recent disruptions, but if it’s 5.1%, that’s a good sign.”

He added that the stronger performance could mark the beginning of an upward trend as the impact of recent fiscal and monetary measures begins to take hold. “The government injected Rp 200 trillion into the economy at the end of September. This pushed base money growth to 13.1%, and we usually see lending follow shortly after,” he explained.

According to him, credit growth at state-owned lenders such as Bank Mandiri has already accelerated from 8% to around 11%, signaling a broader rebound in lending and private sector activity. “I expect it to grow even faster in the coming months,” he said.

The minister noted that the second engine of growth would come from public spending. To ensure fiscal momentum, he has ordered ministries and state agencies to accelerate budget absorption or risk having their funds reallocated by the end of October.

“I’ll divert funds to programs that are ready to execute. Government spending will be stronger than in previous quarters,” he stated.

Purbaya emphasized that with both private lending and government expenditure driving demand, household spending would remain robust, setting the stage for the economy to expand by 5.5% year-on-year in the final quarter. “This is crucial because it will demonstrate a turning point — the first step toward a faster growth era,” he said.

Looking ahead, the minister expressed optimism that the momentum will carry into 2026. “We will debottleneck all the remaining obstacles in the economy. Next year will definitely be brighter than 2025,” he concluded.