Business Activity Stays Expansive Despite Slight Slowdown in Q3 2025, BRI Survey Shows

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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Business activity across Indonesia remains in the expansion zone in the third quarter of 2025, although growth momentum has slowed compared with the previous quarter, according to a Business Activity Survey conducted by the Economic Research Team of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk, or BRI. The moderation was most evident in the transportation, property, and corporate service sectors, even as other industries continued to show healthy utilization and profitability.

The survey found that most industries recorded higher capacity utilization, particularly in electricity and gas supply. Investment realization also grew positively, led by agriculture, while mining investment saw a notable correction amid weaker commodity prices.

Business margins generally improved through the second half of 2025, especially in accommodation and food-and-beverage sectors, while profitability in water supply and waste management declined.

Producer price pressures eased, and inflation expectations remained anchored, signaling a more conducive financing climate for productive business activities.

BRI Economists See Strategic Opportunities for Banks

According to the BRI research team—Chief Economist Anton Hendranata, and economists Ramadani Partama, Fadli Jihad Dahana Setiawan, and Arini Nurkusumawati—the current conditions present a strategic opportunity for banks to strengthen their role in productive lending.

They emphasized that higher capacity utilization and positive investment sentiment could create momentum for banks to expand working capital and investment loans, especially to sectors showing sustained expansion such as energy and basic infrastructure.

The team advised lenders to adopt a selective credit strategy, focusing on industries with strong fundamentals and high profitability potential to safeguard credit quality while supporting sustainable growth.

“Rising production utilization provides opportunities for banks to channel working capital and investment financing, particularly to energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors,” the team said in its report published Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025.

Expansion Continues Across Sectors

The survey indicated that overall business activity remained in the expansion zone, reflected in a slight dip of the Weighted Net Balance (SBT) score to 11.55% in Q3 2025 from 11.70% in the previous quarter. Despite the modest decline, most business sectors continued expanding, underscoring resilient national economic momentum.

Financial services led the expansion with an SBT of 2.20%, followed by manufacturing at 1.61% and construction at 1.12%. Nine other sectors, however, recorded slower growth, including transportation (0.06%), property (0.20%), and corporate services (0.20%).

“Most sectors remain in the expansion phase, but the slowdown in transportation and property suggests adjustment to demand conditions and operational costs,” BRI analysts wrote.

The survey also showed a modest rise in average production capacity utilization, from 73.58% in Q2 to 73.84% in Q3 2025. Electricity and gas supply reported the highest utilization at 81.29%, followed by water and waste management at 74.99%, and mining at 70.81%. Meanwhile, agriculture utilization fell to 71.65% due to seasonal factors and commodity price fluctuations.

Stable Inflation Supports Productive Credit Growth

The BRI economists highlighted that controlled inflation and easing producer price pressures are opening more space for productive lending, particularly in low-risk sectors.

Respondents expect 2025’s full-year inflation to average 2.73% year-on-year, comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 2.5% ± 1%.

“The easing in producer prices reflects a balanced condition between demand and supply, allowing businesses to improve efficiency while maintaining price competitiveness,” the report said.

With inflation contained and production costs declining, both Bank Indonesia and industry players expect healthier loan distribution. The lower risk profile, especially in productive sectors with stable demand, creates room for banks to accelerate lending toward working capital and investment financing.

“A stable inflation environment serves as a key catalyst for accelerating credit expansion in the second half of the year. This creates opportunities for banks to strengthen support for the real sector, particularly in export-oriented, energy, and food industries that require financing to expand capacity,” the BRI team noted.

Outlook: Optimism Toward 2026

Overall, BRI’s survey underlined the resilience and adaptability of Indonesian businesses amid a volatile global environment. Rising production capacity, stable investment sentiment, and controlled inflation are expected to sustain the positive momentum heading into 2026.

Stronger synergy between banks and businesses will be critical to maintaining expansion and reinforcing economic resilience next year.