Prabowo Approval Rating Sinks Below 50% as Food Inflation and Stalled Flagship Programs Sour Public Sentiment

JAKARTA — Public satisfaction with President Prabowo Subianto’s administration has broken below the 50% threshold, capping a steep two-year erosion driven by persistent kitchen-table inflation, darkening economic sentiment, and widespread disillusionment with the government’s signature social welfare programs.

According to a nationwide survey released on Friday, Oct. 16, 2026, by independent pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), only 44.5% of surveyed citizens expressed satisfaction with the head of state’s performance—comprising 4.4% who were very satisfied and 40.1% who were moderately satisfied. In contrast, 53.4% voiced dissatisfaction, with 39.1% stating they were unsatisfied and 14.3% reporting they were entirely unsatisfied.

The findings reflect a dramatic political reversal for the administration. After cresting at 81.2% in November 2025, public approval tumbled to 51.1% by July 2026, shedding an additional 6.6 percentage points over the past quarter alone.

For Southeast Asia’s largest economy, the loss of an absolute governing mandate at the grassroots level sharply curtails executive maneuvering room just as Jakarta confronts tightening external financial conditions and sticky consumer price pressures. With public discontent anchored directly to daily living expenses and basic governance, the administration faces mounting legislative and public scrutiny over its aggressive, state-led spending priorities, testing whether its multi-billion-dollar social programs can deliver tangible economic dividends before political capital evaporates further.

SMRC Executive Director Deni Irfani observed during the presentation that the downward trajectory has yet to find a firm technical floor.

"In the trend, there has been no rebound or reversal yet," Irfani noted, adding that unless the underlying drivers behind public dissatisfaction improve, sentiment could weaken further in subsequent polling cycles.

Kitchen Staples and Economic Pessimism Lead Public Grievances

The survey identified the rising cost of staple food goods as the primary catalyst behind deteriorating sentiment, cited by 30.0% of respondents as the single most pressing national problem requiring immediate government intervention. Eradicating corruption, collusion, and nepotism followed at 26.8%, while poverty reduction polled at 14.7%.

The public’s fixation on basic living costs mirrors official macroeconomic data. Consecutive releases from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded headline consumer inflation climbing steadily from 2.88% in July to 3.19% in August and 3.28% in September, propelled primarily by double-digit price increases across essential horticultural and poultry staples.

Food prices have climbed a cumulative 11.1% since Prabowo assumed office in October 2024, running at almost twice the headline inflation rate.

When asked to evaluate the administration’s handling of basic commodity prices compared to the previous year, 50.6% of respondents characterized performance as worsening, while only 19.7% noted improvement and 28.3% perceived no change. Similar net-negative readings emerged across employment generation, where 31.3% viewed job availability as deteriorating, and anti-corruption efforts, where 38.5% registered worsening performance against 27.8% reporting gains.

Broader evaluations of the macroeconomy proved equally negative. A combined 50.8% of respondents described the current national economic condition as bad or very bad, dwarfing the 17.4% who viewed it favorably. Bivariate cross-tabulation analysis conducted by SMRC confirmed that approval of the president is inextricably tethered to these perceptions: among citizens who view current economic conditions as positive, Prabowo’s approval rating stands at 87%, but that figure collapses to just 23% among those who assess the economic backdrop as poor.

Flagship Programs Turn Into Electoral Liabilities

The survey delivered an especially sobering verdict on the administration’s primary policy cornerstones: the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) initiative and the Red and White Village Cooperatives (KDMP) network. Despite consuming vast fiscal outlays and commanding near-universal public awareness, both programs have failed to foster public goodwill.

While awareness of the MBG program reached 95.7%, 61.3% of informed respondents expressed dissatisfaction with its execution, heavily outweighing the 33.8% who reported being satisfied. The negative sentiment has persisted despite recent administrative reshuffles within the National Nutrition Agency (BGN), lingering reports of food safety incidents, and operational bottlenecks across school kitchens.

The reception for the KDMP village cooperative program was starker still. While 79.9% of the public is now aware of the rural commercial drive, an overwhelming 71.0% indicated they have little to no confidence that local cooperative units will develop into viable commercial enterprises. Only 15.6% expressed confidence in the program's long-term commercial trajectory.

SMRC’s correlation data highlighted an unusual paradox: public approval of the president was highest among respondents who were completely unaware of the flagship programs. Among citizens aware of the MBG drive, presidential approval stood at 43%, and slid to 40% among those cognizant of the KDMP network. Among citizens who expressed complete lack of confidence in the cooperative initiative, Prabowo's approval plummeted to 17%.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 10, 2026, surveying 1,213 voting-age Indonesian citizens nationwide via a dual-mode framework combining telephone double-sampling and stratified multistage random face-to-face interviews. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9% at a 95% confidence level.