Telkom Indonesia Eyes Massive Fiber Merger to Unlock Value; Why Analysts Predict a Stock Surge

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (TLKM), the nation’s dominant telecommunications provider, is poised for a major structural shift as it moves to absorb the fiber optic assets of PLN Icon Plus. The potential consolidation, orchestrated under the guidance of the state-owned investment firm Danantara, aims to streamline overlapping state infrastructure and position Telkom’s infrastructure arm, InfraNexia, as a premier target for global strategic investors.

This deal represents a critical "value unlocking" moment for Telkom, which has been aggressively restructuring to simplify its sprawling business. By consolidating over 248,000 miles (400,000 kilometers) of fiber network from the state utility’s tech unit, Telkom creates a regional infrastructure powerhouse. This scale is expected to attract high-profile strategic partners, potentially allowing Telkom to divest a 20-30% stake in InfraNexia at a premium valuation.

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EBITDA Powerhouse in the Making

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas analysts Erindra Krisnawan and Kafi Ananta highlighted in a recent report that the integration of PLN Icon Plus could be a game-changer for InfraNexia’s financials. With PLN Icon Plus projected to generate approximately Rp 5.4 trillion ($339.6 million) in telecom revenue and Rp 2.6 trillion ($163.5 million) in EBITDA by 2025, the merger could provide a 26% EBITDA boost to InfraNexia on a standalone basis.

The strategy is viewed as a necessary pivot to rebuild business scale and enhance investment appeal following previous asset restatements. Analysts noted that the consolidation is specifically designed to eliminate inefficiencies where state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have historically built competing, redundant fiber networks.

Unlocking a $0.28 Price Target

The market is closely watching Telkom’s next move regarding its divestment strategy. After pivoting away from an initial public offering (IPO) for InfraNexia, Telkom is now adopting a "strategic partner" model similar to the successful collaboration between Telkomsel and Singtel.

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas maintains a "Buy" recommendation on TLKM with a base target of Rp 4,000. However, the firm estimates that a successful consolidation and subsequent stake sale of 20-30% at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9 to 12 times would drive Telkom’s fair value into the Rp 4,100 to Rp 4,500 ($0.26 - $0.28) range.

Building a National Connectivity Giant

PLN Icon Plus currently manages a national network supporting 1.2 million home connections and 2.7 million home passes, serving government and corporate clients alongside the internal needs of the state electricity giant. Bringing these assets under InfraNexia’s umbrella would effectively end the era of infrastructure "cannibalization" among Indonesian SOEs.

The momentum for this transition was signaled as early as December 2025. During a press conference at the Telkom Landmark Tower on December 18, 2025, Telkom President Director Dian Siswarini detailed the first phase of the wholesale fiber connectivity business separation, marking the formal birth of InfraNexia as a dedicated infrastructure vehicle.