Harita Nickel Charts Its Own Course as Indonesia’s EV Metals Strategy Evolves

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk or NCKL enters 2026 in Jakarta at a pivotal moment as Indonesia’s nickel industry adjusts to global electric vehicle battery shifts, tighter domestic supply controls, and rising investor scrutiny, with the company positioning integration and efficiency as its main defenses. The approach is expected to preserve earnings resilience and reinforce Indonesia’s role in the global EV metals chain despite changing demand patterns.

The global EV industry has moved into a new technological phase, driven by the rapid adoption of lithium ferro phosphate batteries for mass market vehicles. This transition has reshaped market sentiment toward nickel but has not eliminated its strategic relevance.

Harita Nickel President Director Roy Arman Arfandy has stressed that technology narratives often oversimplify demand dynamics. “For investors, the key issue is not the battery chemistry alone, but whether nickel demand remains sustainable and where it sits in the global value chain,” he said.

China based manufacturers have led the LFP transition due to lower costs and better thermal stability for urban mobility. Automakers outside China have followed selectively, adopting LFP mainly for entry level models while retaining nickel based batteries for long range and premium vehicles.

For Indonesia, which holds the world’s largest nickel reserves, the shift has functioned more as a stress test than a structural threat. The country remains central to supply, but the market increasingly rewards producers with cost discipline and downstream exposure.

Indonesia’s dominance is underpinned by scale. The country produced around 2.2 million metric tons of nickel in 2024, accounting for roughly half of global output and far exceeding other producers.

That scale contributed to prolonged oversupply and price pressure through 2024 and 2025. Nickel prices fell to around $14,000 per ton in late 2025 before rebounding sharply at the start of 2026.

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The recovery was closely linked to policy signals. The government confirmed plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026 to around 250 to 260 million tons, down about 34 percent from the 2025 RKAB allocation.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia framed the move as a long term strategy. “We will reduce production so prices improve and so these resources remain available for our grandchildren,” he said. “This applies not only to coal but also to nickel, where supply will be adjusted to industrial needs.”

Mineral and Coal Director General Tri Winarno said the quota reduction reflected domestic processing demand. “Nickel output will be adjusted to smelter capacity, likely around 250 to 260 million tons,” he said.

While policy support has lifted sentiment, analysts caution that structural challenges persist. BMO Capital Markets has projected the global nickel market could still post a surplus of around 240,000 tons in 2026 even after Indonesia’s production cuts.

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Equity analysts, however, see differentiated outcomes among producers. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas highlighted Harita Nickel as a relative beneficiary of the new cycle due to its integrated assets and upcoming commissioning phase.

In its latest research note, BRI Danareksa analyst Andhika Audrey projected NCKL’s total installed capacity to rise to around 305,000 tons of nickel in 2026, up from about 180,000 tons in 2025, following the start up of new RKEF and HPAL related projects.

“With additional capacity coming online and a more stable operating mix, we expect NCKL’s earnings visibility to improve materially despite utilization normalizing to more sustainable levels,” Andhika said.

The brokerage forecast utilization rates to ease to around 68 to 70 percent in 2026 from unusually high levels in 2025, a shift it described as healthy rather than negative for long term operations.

BRI Danareksa also estimated consolidated nickel sales in the form of nickel pig iron to increase to around 205,000 to 210,000 tons in 2026, compared with about 175,000 tons previously, supported by incremental capacity.

On the downstream side, the brokerage projected mixed hydroxide precipitate output from Harita’s HPAL operations to remain stable at around 68,300 tons, while profit contribution was expected to rise sharply following NCKL’s increase in effective ownership in key joint ventures.

“These factors led us to revise up our net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2027 by roughly 44 to 67 percent,” Andhika said, citing full year profit contribution from new projects and lower unit cash costs.

BRI Danareksa maintained a buy recommendation on NCKL with a target price of Rp 1,800 per share, based on a sum of the parts valuation and discounted cash flow analysis.

The target price implied a 2026 price to earnings ratio of around 9.9 times, which the brokerage viewed as reasonable given NCKL’s integrated profile and improving earnings quality.

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Operationally, Harita Nickel continues to emphasize efficiency. Continuous optimization of HPAL technology and RKEF operations has helped manage costs amid expansion.

Environmental, social, and governance considerations have also moved to the center of investor assessment. Nickel producers face growing scrutiny over emissions, waste management, and community impact.

Roy Arman Arfandy acknowledged that sustainability now directly affects valuation. “ESG is no longer an additional narrative, but a factor that directly affects access to funding and long term competitiveness,” he said.

Indonesia’s nickel strategy is entering a more disciplined phase, marked by supply controls, deeper downstream integration, and higher sustainability expectations.

For Harita Nickel, execution will be decisive. Cost efficiency, capacity ramp up, and ESG performance will determine whether integration translates into durable shareholder value.

As the EV transition evolves, nickel remains embedded in it. Companies able to adapt their business models rather than chase volume alone are best positioned to endure.

In that context, Harita Nickel stands as a case study of Indonesia’s broader ambition to transform resource abundance into industrial resilience amid a rapidly changing energy landscape.