Harita Nickel Earnings Beat Estimates, 2025 Profit and Share Price Targets Revised Upward
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesian publicly listed nickel producer PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk, or Harita Nickel and trading under ticker NCKL, has reported a sharp increase in net profit to Rp 4.10 trillion in the first half of 2025, exceeding consensus estimates and prompting upward revisions to its full-year earnings and share price targets.
The company’s net income surged 46.2% year-on-year from Rp 2.80 trillion, supported by robust margin expansion across business segments. Revenue rose 10.1% to Rp 14.09 trillion from Rp 12.80 trillion in the same period last year.
On a quarterly basis, second-quarter net profit climbed 47.1% to Rp 2.44 trillion, even as revenue fell slightly by 2.2% to Rp 6.9 trillion. Compared to the second quarter of 2024, revenue still grew by 2.9%.
Analysts Lift Forecasts After Strong H1
Samuel Sekuritas analysts Brandon Boedhiman and Juan Harahap noted that Harita Nickel’s first-half net income represented 61.8% of the firm’s internal projection and 56.3% of consensus estimates. A key contributor was the Rp 1.2 trillion income from associates, which rose 93.7% year-on-year, driven by a 22.6% quarter-on-quarter increase in NiSO4 margins to $5,000 per ton.
The company also benefited from a reduction in non-controlling interest expenses, which fell 12.4% to Rp 538 billion after NCKL raised its ownership in Obi Nickel Cobalt (ONC) to 40% in June 2025.
Expansion Projects on Track
Samuel Sekuritas highlighted several ongoing projects that are progressing on schedule. Phase I of the KPS RKEF smelter project was completed in the first quarter, while Phase II — with a capacity of 60,000 tons per year — has reached 69% completion and is expected to begin operations in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Phase III is currently 30% complete and scheduled to reach commercial operation in the first quarter of 2026, with a total investment of $1.9 billion. The GTS mine, backed by a modest $0.5 million investment, is on track to begin operations in the second half of this year. Meanwhile, the 600,000-ton-per-year quicklime plant — a $70 million investment — is slated for production launch in the fourth quarter of 2025, aimed at lowering costs in the high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) process.
All these projects are being financed with equity raised during the nickel price upcycle, helping to reduce execution risk.
Revised Forecasts and Upgraded Target Price
Given the strong first-half results and solid project execution, Samuel Sekuritas has revised its full-year net profit forecast for NCKL upward from Rp 6.63 trillion to Rp 7.34 trillion. Revenue projections for 2025 were also lifted from Rp 26.38 trillion to Rp 27.44 trillion. For 2026, the firm now expects revenue to reach Rp 28.99 trillion and net profit Rp 7.81 trillion.
Accordingly, Samuel Sekuritas raised its target share price for NCKL from the previous estimate to Rp 1,300, offering a potential upside of 30.6%. The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method and reflects a forward 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.3 times.
The brokerage reiterated its buy recommendation, citing NCKL’s position as a low-cost leader in the nickel sector and its operational resilience.
Valuation Signals Optimism
According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading at Rp 965 per share, near the higher end of its 52-week range of Rp 530–1,065. However, valuation models suggest significant room for upside. The average fair value estimate across 13 models is Rp 1,350, representing a 39.9% potential gain from the current price. Analyst targets also point to upside, with 15 analysts projecting a median price of Rp 1,182, ranging from Rp 900 to Rp 1,430.
This optimism is further supported by NCKL’s strong track record. The company has raised its dividend for three consecutive years and is trading at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio relative to near-term earnings growth. It is also noted for its low earnings multiple and its standing as a prominent player in the metals and mining industry.
Source: Investing.com. Data are accurate as of the time of publication.
In terms of financial health, NCKL shows solid fundamentals. It scores 4 out of 5 on growth, profitability, and relative value, while maintaining decent metrics in price momentum and cash flow health. These indicators position the company as a robust performer within the materials sector in developing markets.
As NCKL advances major expansion projects and maintains cost leadership in nickel processing, its valuation upside and financial resilience make it a favored pick in the sector.
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