ISAT and EXCL Earnings Outlook Raised as BRI Danareksa Lifts Price Targets

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison Tbk or ISAT and PT XLSmart Telecom Sejahtera Tbk or EXCL see their earnings outlook upgraded on Sunday, Dec 14, 2025 in Jakarta as BRI Danareksa Sekuritas revised up forecasts and price targets, driven by stronger fundamentals and improving monetization strategies that are expected to support share re-rating.

The brokerage raised its financial projections for both telecom operators after assessing stronger revenue visibility, better balance sheet profiles, and clearer post-consolidation industry dynamics that reduced competitive pressure.

For ISAT, BRI Danareksa increased its 2026 revenue growth forecast to 5.2% year on year. The revision reflected stronger mobile service growth of 3.6% and an estimated $70 million contribution from GPU as a Service offerings.

These factors led analysts to raise ISAT’s 2026 net profit estimate by 11.4%. The research note highlighted ongoing price repair initiatives that aimed to lift data yields from current levels that remained the lowest among peers.

ISAT’s data yield stood at around Rp2,300 per gigabyte, representing a 13% discount to its three-year average. Analysts viewed this gap as room for gradual normalization in a more rational market environment.

The brokerage also projected ISAT’s average revenue per user to rise 1.6% year on year to Rp39,300 in 2026. The improvement was expected to come from AI-driven personalization and better traffic monetization following industry consolidation.

BRI Danareksa maintained a buy rating on ISAT and raised its price target to Rp3,000 per share. The valuation implied 5.3 times 2026 EV to EBITDA, supported by expectations of earnings re-rating.

Additional upside was seen from ISAT’s plan to divest 70% of its fiber network business. The transaction was targeted for completion by year-end with an estimated valuation of about $1 billion, or 12.7 times EV to EBITDA.

ISAT was also reported to be seeking a strategic FiberCo partner to enhance asset monetization and accelerate enterprise network growth. The strategy mirrored value creation achieved earlier through its data center partnership with BDx.

For EXCL, BRI Danareksa also revised up earnings estimates and price targets following balance sheet improvements. The upgrade followed EXCL’s sale of a 18.32% stake in tower operator MORA at Rp432 per share.

The transaction generated proceeds of Rp1.87 trillion and an estimated accounting gain of Rp112.6 billion. Analysts said the divestment strengthened financial flexibility amid elevated capital expenditure needs.

Although EXCL had paid a special dividend of Rp2.9 trillion in December 2025, funded largely by treasury share sales, the brokerage viewed the MORA divestment as primarily aimed at restoring balance sheet resilience.

With improved liquidity, EXCL’s net debt to EBITDA ratio was projected to decline to 2.8 times in 2026–2027. This compared with a previous estimate of 3.1 times amid higher post-merger leverage.

BRI Danareksa raised EXCL’s net profit forecasts by 12% for 2026 and 20% for 2027. The upgrades reflected lower interest expenses due to a leaner debt profile.

EXCL’s EBITDA was forecast to grow 13.7% year on year in 2026 and 12.5% in 2027. EBITDA margin was expected to recover to nearly 49% by 2027, supported by network integration gains and cost synergies.

Capital expenditure intensity was projected to peak at 24% and 21% of revenue in 2025–2026. Spending was expected to fall below 20% from 2027 as the company shifted focus back to core mobile operations after fiber restructuring.

These factors led BRI Danareksa to raise EXCL’s price target to Rp4,100 per share. The valuation implied 6.2 times and 5.5 times EV to EBITDA for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

The brokerage said stronger free cash flow generation in 2027–2030, estimated at Rp8 trillion to Rp10 trillion annually, underpinned the higher valuation outlook.

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