CTRA Shares Stay Compelling Despite Softer Marketing Sales

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia's listed property developer PT Ciputra Development Tbk or CTRA records weaker than expected property marketing sales in 2025, yet analysts maintain a positive view on the stock as fiscal incentives and sector liquidity continue to support demand.

CTRA books marketing sales of Rp 1.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, down 20.3% year on year, bringing full year 2025 marketing sales to Rp 9.5 trillion.

Mandiri Sekuritas says the realization comes slightly below the revised target of Rp 10 trillion, meaning the company achieves around 95% of its updated projection.

Fourth quarter sales are supported by the launch of four new projects totaling 376 units, although the blended take up rate remains limited at around 40%.

Tax incentives play a meaningful role, with value added tax relief contributing around Rp 400 billion to fourth quarter marketing sales and reaching Rp 2.7 trillion for the full year.

“Although 2025 marketing sales did not fully meet the revised target, we maintain our buy recommendation for CTRA with a target price of Rp 1,330,” Mandiri Sekuritas writes in its research note.

The positive outlook is reinforced by the government’s extension of the 100% value added tax borne by the government incentive for landed houses and apartments until the end of 2026.

The policy is regulated under Finance Ministry Regulation Number 90 of 2025 and applies to homes with selling prices of up to Rp 5 billion, with full VAT coverage for units priced up to Rp 2 billion.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa says the extension aims to safeguard national economic growth by strengthening household purchasing power, particularly in the housing sector.

The broader property sector is also expected to benefit from improved banking liquidity, as government fund placements in banks lower funding costs and encourage mortgage lending growth.

Analysts at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas say historical trends show a linear relationship between liquidity and property pre sales, especially as buyer profiles increasingly shift toward end users.

They project that the continuation of VAT incentives could support around 4% growth in property marketing sales in 2026, compared with a contraction seen in the previous year.

Against this backdrop, property stocks continue to trade at significant discounts to their five year average valuations, despite improving return on equity and balance sheet quality.

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas maintains an overweight stance on the sector, with CTRA positioned as the top pick, followed by PWON, SMRA, and BSDE.

Industry data from Realestat Indonesia shows that investment inflows of between $3.5 billion and $7 billion into property could lift Indonesia’s economic growth by up to 0.5%, underlining the sector’s macroeconomic importance.