Vale Indonesia Shares Trade Below Peers Despite Upside Potential, Analysts Say
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Vale Indonesia Tbk, or INCO, has struggled to maintain growth momentum after a peak in 2023, with earnings sharply declining in 2024. Still, analysts see room for recovery, forecasting a potential share price increase of up to 21.7% from current levels.
Revenue fell 22.9% to Rp15.3 trillion ($957 million) in 2024, down from a record Rp18.9 trillion ($1.18 billion) the previous year. The company’s gross profit margin shrank dramatically from 28.2% to just 11.4%, reflecting a surge in operational costs that have weighed on profitability.
INCO’s operating profit dropped to Rp663 billion ($41.4 million) in 2024, down from Rp4.98 trillion ($310 million) a year earlier. The steep decline was largely due to a tripling of operating expenses, which surpassed Rp1 trillion ($62.5 million), along with a significant shortfall in non-operating income.
Despite its global standing in nickel mining, Vale Indonesia's market valuation remains subdued. Its market capitalization stood at Rp37.5 trillion ($2.34 billion), falling short of the Rp50 trillion ($3.12 billion) average for peers, and far below the broader materials sector which is valued at Rp693 trillion ($43.3 billion).
Over the past year, INCO’s share price declined 4.1%, significantly underperforming its sector peers, which posted an average gain of 78.6%.
Financial indicators suggest further headwinds. According to Investing.com’s analysis, the company scored just 3 out of 5 in cash flow health—its highest rating across categories. In contrast, its growth outlook was rated just 1, indicating stagnation or contraction. Overall, INCO’s financial performance was rated “Fair.”
Nevertheless, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. A consensus of 14 analysts projects the stock’s fair value at Rp4,331.98, implying a 21.7% upside from the current market price of Rp3,560 as of Friday, Aug. 1, 2025.
Price targets vary widely—from as low as Rp2,936 to as high as Rp4,899—while some valuation models suggest the stock could reach Rp5,748 under ideal conditions.
Vale’s earnings trajectory reflects high exposure to global nickel prices and rising production costs. The company also faces mounting pressure to address carbon emissions, a key factor as environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards tighten. Still, opportunities remain if INCO can improve operational efficiency, diversify its product base, and reinforce its competitive edge in the global nickel industry.
Shares of INCO rose 3.19% in Friday’s trade on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, gaining 110 points to close at Rp3,560.
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