Indef Warns Environmental Governance Key to Prevent Repeat of Sumatra Disasters

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance says improving environmental governance is critical to preventing the recurrence of floods and landslides in Sumatra, following a series of disasters in late 2025 and early January 2026 that affected Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra. The conclusion was presented on Saturday, Jan 10, 2026 in Jakarta as part of Indef’s Big Data Continuum research, which found public sentiment overwhelmingly blamed environmental degradation rather than natural factors.

Indef stated that the government and state-owned enterprises must integrate hydrometeorological risk indicators and forest cover data into spatial planning, infrastructure development, and strategic investment decisions. Such integration was seen as essential to shifting disaster management from short-term emergency response to long-term risk reduction.

The research highlighted the need to strengthen watershed rehabilitation and reforestation programs, particularly in provinces experiencing high deforestation trends. Indef also urged a review of land-use permit governance in upstream areas that had contributed to increased flood and landslide risks.

The findings were based on an analysis of 576,176 conversations on Twitter or X and YouTube between Nov 23 and Nov 30, 2025, which showed a consistent narrative in how the public interpreted the Sumatra disasters. Most users no longer viewed the events as purely natural disasters, but as consequences of extensive environmental damage.

According to the Indef Big Data Continuum research team, 96.64 percent of public sentiment carried a negative tone. The dominant narrative framed the disasters as nature’s response to human greed, particularly widespread deforestation on Sumatra.

“This was followed by anger because ordinary people became the victims, which was perceived as deeply unfair,” said Indef economist Syamil Iklil in an official statement on Saturday. He added that environmental damage had become central to how the public understood the disasters.

Deforestation Dominates Public Discourse

Indef data scientist Arini Astari said deforestation ranked as the most discussed topic, with 51,008 mentions. This figure far exceeded discussions of natural factors such as heavy rainfall, which recorded 39,680 mentions, and tropical cyclones, with 27,720 mentions.

“This indicates that public awareness has shifted toward recognizing environmental degradation as the root cause,” Arini said. She added that online discussions increasingly linked disasters to upstream economic activities.

The research noted that illegal mining was mentioned 13,540 times, while oil palm plantation expansion appeared in 4,953 conversations. These activities were widely seen as exacerbating regional vulnerability to floods and landslides.

Indef concluded that deforestation was perceived as the primary factor weakening the natural carrying capacity of the environment. Natural triggers such as extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones were still acknowledged, but not positioned as the sole causes.

Syamil explained that intense rainfall in a short period significantly increased surface runoff, flash floods, and landslides, especially in areas where soil absorption capacity had declined due to environmental degradation. The situation was intensified by the emergence of Tropical Cyclone Seed 95B in the Malacca Strait, which later developed into Tropical Cyclone Senyar on Nov 26, 2025.

The weather system strengthened cloud formation and moisture supply over Sumatra, particularly Aceh, resulting in heavy rain, strong winds, and other extreme conditions. These factors magnified environmental and infrastructure risks in already vulnerable regions.

From Data to Policy Agenda

Arini said that when combined, data on casualties, rainfall, and deforestation painted a consistent picture of long-term environmental pressure compounded by climate anomalies. She stressed that the disasters reflected a decline in Sumatra’s ecological capacity to act as a natural buffer against extreme climate risks.

For policymakers and state-owned enterprises, Indef outlined several implications, including embedding hydrometeorological risk and forest cover indicators into development planning. Strengthening watershed rehabilitation, accelerating reforestation, and reforming upstream land-use governance were identified as urgent priorities.

Indef emphasized that a data-driven approach would allow post-disaster policies and investments to focus not only on immediate recovery, but also on reducing systemic risks in the future. The research used machine learning-based scraping techniques to filter data from media and bots, ensuring unbiased sentiment, topic, and user analysis.