Merdeka Gold (EMAS) Fair Value Seen at Rp 7,900 Amid Rising Gold Prices
Key Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Shares of PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk, or EMAS, have a fair value of Rp 7,900 per share, far above Friday’s Sept 26, 2025, closing price of Rp 3,360 in the first trading session. This leaves room for more than 135 percent upside. The valuation is supported by vast gold reserves, low mining costs, ambitious production targets, and a favorable global gold price trend.
When listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025, EMAS priced its shares at Rp 2,880. The prospectus stated that this was a conservative assumption, while the actual fair value was Rp 7,900, equivalent to a net present value of Rp 127 trillion. At current market levels, investors are effectively buying EMAS at a 58 percent discount to intrinsic value.
Valuation Drivers
Merdeka Gold Resources controls 7 million ounces of gold reserves, making it the third-largest in Indonesia. Its cash cost of US$1,200 per ounce is far lower than Archi Indonesia (ARCI) at US$1,881 per ounce. Initial production is set between 80,000–120,000 ounces starting in 2026, scaling up to 495,000 ounces per year by 2033.
Research by Mandiri Sekuritas in mid-September ranked EMAS reserves third after Amman Mineral (AMMN) at 32.8 million oz and Freeport Indonesia at 22.4 million oz. EMAS surpasses Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS) at 5.1 million oz, United Tractors (UNTR) at 3.5 million oz, Archi Indonesia at 3.4 million oz, J Resources (PSAB) at 2 million oz, and Indika Energy (INDY) at 1.5 million oz.
Margins are expected to be substantial. With a cash cost of US$1,200 per oz and assuming gold prices at US$3,700 per oz, EMAS could generate net margins of US$2,000 per oz. Based on initial production, profit before tax could reach US$160–240 million in 2026, and scale to US$1 billion once full capacity is reached.
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Stock Outlook
Another catalyst is the potential inclusion of EMAS in the MSCI Index, as its market capitalization has risen to Rp 53.39 trillion. A free float of 13.63 percent also boosts liquidity and foreign investor appeal.
Indonesian capital market observer Reydi Octa said EMAS has a strong outlook, especially with the Pani gold project in Gorontalo expected to start generating revenue next year. “EMAS has good potential, with Pani as its main revenue source. The company is expected to start booking net profits in 2026,” Reydi said on Thursday, Sept 25, 2025.
Global Gold Price Trend
EMAS’s valuation gains further support from the global gold rally. Mandiri Sekuritas revised its 2025 average gold price forecast to US$3,300 per oz, and 2026 to US$3,600 per oz. On Sept 23, 2025, global gold hit a record US$3,763.82 per oz.
UOB Kay Hian Securities expects the rally to continue, citing global uncertainty and falling interest rates. The bank projects average prices of US$3,400 per oz in Q3 2025, rising to US$3,700 per oz in Q2 2026.
About the Company
Merdeka Gold Resources is a subsidiary of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), developing the Pani Gold Project in Pohuwato, Gorontalo. With reserves of 7 million oz, it is designed as a low-cost, long-life mine with peak production of 500,000 oz per year. First commercial output is targeted for Q1 2026.
The IPO raised Rp 4.66 trillion through the issuance of 1.62 billion new shares, or 10 percent of paid-in capital, priced at Rp 2,880 per share. Proceeds will fund working capital for mining operations and partially repay debt.