Timah Profit Projected to Soar 206% in 2026 on Rising Production and Stronger Tin Prices
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Timah Tbk, or TINS, is expected to record a sharp profit rebound starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, as production recovers following the government’s crackdown on illegal mining and a global rise in tin prices. Analysts project the company’s profit will surge more than 200% in 2026, aided by improved supply chains and the transfer of confiscated smelter assets worth Rp 7 trillion, which has strengthened investor sentiment.
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has raised its target price for TINS shares to Rp 3,000, maintaining a buy recommendation. The stock has already gained more than 160% in the past month to Rp 2,700.
BRI Danareksa analysts Naura Reyhan Muchlis and Nashrullah Putra Sulaeman said the government’s tighter enforcement against illegal tin mining would be the key catalyst for Timah’s production recovery. The company’s 2025 output is now estimated at 15,000 metric tons, below the earlier forecast of 22,000 tons and the management’s work plan target of 30,000 tons.
However, production is expected to jump to 45,000 tons in 2026, supported by better ore supply and strengthened supply-chain governance. Timah’s management also sees a long-term potential output of up to 80,000 tons per year, though that projection remains aspirational and beyond the current government-approved work plan.
In addition to higher output, the company’s performance is set to benefit from stronger global tin prices. BRI Danareksa revised up its profit forecasts for TINS by 19% for 2025 and 206% for 2026, to Rp 1 trillion and Rp 2.4 trillion respectively. These estimates assume an average selling price of US$32,000 per ton in 2025 and US$30,000 per ton in 2026—up 10% and 7% from prior assumptions.
“With production reaching 45,000 tons in 2025 and global tin prices stabilizing, Timah’s revenue and margins are projected to rise sharply. We expect 2026 EBITDA to reach Rp 4 trillion, up 49% from the previous estimate, while maintaining a competitive cash cost of around US$20,000 per ton,” the analysts wrote.
Source: InvestingPro. Data as current as the time of publication.
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Under an optimistic scenario where both production and prices exceed expectations, Timah’s 2026 profit could reach as high as Rp 4.3 trillion. Analysts see TINS as one of the most attractive re-rating opportunities among metal commodity stocks next year, supported by strong fundamentals and tighter industry governance.
The handover of six seized tin smelters, valued at Rp 7 trillion, marks the largest consolidation effort in the government’s mining law enforcement program. The assets, confiscated from illegal operators, include 108 heavy machines and large inventories of refined tin. “These smelting facilities are expected to significantly expand Timah’s downstream footprint and strengthen state control over domestic refining,” the analysts said.
The transfer will enhance smelting capacity, tighten control over the domestic supply chain, and support the government’s law-enforcement agenda. The new assets will also give Timah greater flexibility in processing ore and reduce its reliance on third-party facilities, improving operational leverage as legal ore volumes recover.
Beyond immediate capacity gains, the move sends a strong policy signal of long-term government support for the formalization of Indonesia’s tin industry. It is expected to boost Timah’s visibility as the nation’s leading tin producer and could trigger a valuation re-rating as integration proceeds more clearly.