PGAS Earnings Growth Projected to Accelerate in H2, Stock Seen as Attractive Buy
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Net profit growth at PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk, or PGAS, is projected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, supported by higher revenues and improving margins, raising prospects for investors seeking both capital gains and high dividend yields.
Analysts at PT Sucor Sekuritas estimated that PGAS could record net profit of US$186 million in the second half, an increase of 29% compared with the first half. The forecast is based on expectations that revenue will rise to US$2 billion while the operating profit margin improves to 12.8% from 12.4%.
Niko Pandowo, equity analyst at Sucor Sekuritas, said stronger distribution margins are expected as a larger portion of sales comes from non-regulated gas prices and price adjustments help offset higher liquefied natural gas supply costs, which rose about 10% from a year earlier.
“Gas distribution volumes are also likely to be higher in the second half, with fewer public holidays than in the first six months,” he wrote in a research note.
The brokerage maintained its “buy” recommendation on PGAS with a target price of Rp 2,180 per share. The valuation reflects projected 2025 ratios of 9.7 times price-to-earnings and 3.2 times EV/EBITDA. PGAS shares are also considered attractive for yield-focused investors, with an estimated dividend yield of about 10%.
In the first half of 2025, PGAS posted gas distribution revenue of US$1.3 billion, up 13% from the same period last year. The growth was driven by a 14% increase in the average selling price to US$8.9 per MMBTU, although distribution volume slipped slightly to 832 billion British thermal units per day (BBTUD).
By contrast, the upstream segment faced pressure, with revenue falling 28% year on year to US$141 million, reflecting a decline in oil and gas lifting to 16,774 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The weakness was compounded by a lower oil selling price of US$46 per million barrels of oil equivalent and delayed production at the Pangkah Block.
These factors led PGAS net profit in the first half of 2025 to decline 23% to US$144 million. Despite the drop, the result was viewed as better than expected, already reaching 44% of the company’s full-year target. Profitability was supported by an improvement in gas distribution margins, which climbed to 21% from 17%.
According to InvestingPro data, PGAS is trading at Rp 1,745, near the lower end of its 52-week range of Rp 1,425 to Rp 1,895. The platform estimates the stock’s fair value at Rp 2,662, implying a potential upside of 52.6% from current levels, with relatively low uncertainty. Analyst targets are more conservative, with 12 brokers setting an average target price of Rp 1,700, ranging between Rp 1,492 and Rp 2,296.
Source: InvestingPro. Data as of time of publication.
PGAS is supported by a solid balance sheet, holding more cash than debt, and has consistently raised its dividend for the past four years. The company is also trading at a low EV/EBITDA multiple, with its valuation implying a strong free cash flow yield—features that enhance its appeal for value and income-focused investors.
On InvestingPro’s financial health scoring system, PGAS shows balanced fundamentals, scoring 3 out of 5 for profitability and relative value, 4 for cash flow, growth, and price momentum, placing it in the “great performance” category relative to peers in the utilities sector.
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