Amman Mineral’s New Frontier: Betting Big on a Copper Supercycle

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk (AMMN) is poised to break into a new earnings cycle in 2026, driven by a ramp-up at its flagship Batu Hijau mine following a challenging phase-eight transition. This operational shift promises to reshape the company’s balance sheet and could signal a turning point for its valuation on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

In a recent research note, analysts at BRI Danareksa Securities issued a “buy” recommendation for AMMN, setting a target price of Rp 6,000 ($0.37) per share. This target implies an upside of approximately 90% from the company’s recent closing price of Rp 3,300 ($0.20).

Beyond the specific gains for the Indonesian miner, the story highlights the shifting geography of the global energy transition. As the world moves away from traditional construction-based copper demand, the metal is becoming the essential backbone of the digital and green economy—powering everything from AI data centers to electric vehicle charging grids. For investors, Amman Mineral represents a leveraged play on the intersection of industrial electrification and the persistent safe-haven appeal of gold.

Scaling the Pit

Amman’s turnaround is anchored in the success of its Batu Hijau site—a massive open-pit operation on the island of Sumbawa. According to analyst Andhika Audrey, the mine is shedding the constraints of its previous transition phase. In the first quarter of 2026, fresh ore extraction surged to 38 million tons, a dramatic increase from just 1 million tons in the same period last year.

This surge in throughput translated into 167,800 dry metric tons of copper concentrate, representing a 110% year-over-year increase. The output yielded approximately 101 million pounds of copper and 136,000 ounces of gold. BRI Danareksa projects that AMMN’s total revenue for 2026 will hit $4 billion, a 117% leap over the previous year, with EBITDA expected to nearly double to $2 billion.

The Smelter Shift

A critical part of the company’s evolution is its transition from a raw concentrate exporter to an integrated domestic refiner—a move supported by Indonesian government mandates requiring mining firms to process minerals locally.

During the first quarter of 2026, Amman’s new smelter and Precious Metals Refinery (PMR) facilities produced 27,700 tons of copper cathodes and 66,200 ounces of pure gold. By keeping this value-added processing within the country, the company is insulating its margins from global logistics fluctuations and capturing the premiums associated with refined metals.

Looking ahead, management is eyeing the third quarter of 2026 for the start of operations at a new processing facility. This expansion is designed to lift total capacity from 40 million tons annually to roughly 85 million tons, effectively future-proofing the company against potential supply-side constraints.

A Compelling Valuation

While the 2025 fiscal year was marred by the operational distortions of the transition phase, the 2026 outlook paints a different picture. BRI Danareksa estimates an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.7x, which the firm argues is attractive compared to global peers. Using a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method—which accounts for the cash-flow-heavy Batu Hijau mine, the new refining facilities, and the long-term potential of the "Elang" project—analysts expect net profit to rise from $249 million in 2025 to $909 million this year, with a trajectory toward $1.46 billion by 2027.