Prabowo Electoral Support Plummets to Single Digits as SMRC Poll Reveals Bleak Political Horizon

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — President Prabowo Subianto is confronting a collapse in political capital entering the second year of his administration, as a landmark survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) revealed his presidential electability has deteriorated to single digits.

In a nationwide poll conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 10, 2026, the incumbent head of state commanded just 9.8% support in a semi-open field of 24 prospective candidates. The reading places the former general in third position, trailing former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan at 10.3% and West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi, who broke away with a commanding 35.5% plurality.

For international investors and credit assessors monitoring Southeast Asia’s largest economy, a rapid erosion of an incumbent’s domestic mandate increases structural policy uncertainty. When an administration faces evaporating electoral support alongside a sub-50% approval rating, executive leverage to pass contentious fiscal reforms, enforce spending discipline, and steer long-term industrialization strategies weakens across parliament and regional power centers.

Downward Spiral

The survey results point to an uninterrupted downward spiral rather than a short-term volatility blip. Speaking during an SMRC broadcast on Sunday, SMRC Executive Director Deni Irfani observed that Prabowo had previously led the field with 34.9% support in November 2025 and roughly 33% in early 2026, before plunging to 14.5% in July and dropping further to 9.8% in October.

"From July to October, there has been no visible rebound," Irfani said. "The electoral strength of Pak Prabowo continues to weaken, aligning directly with his declining job approval rating, which recently slipped under the psychological threshold to 44.5%."

The structural decay is even more pronounced when tested against hypothetical head-to-head matchups. Pitted exclusively against fellow Gerindra Party cadre Dedi Mulyadi, Prabowo managed just 18.8% of the vote, while Dedi captured 69.0%, with uncommitted voters remaining steady at 12.2%.

Testing whether the president's weakness stemmed merely from Dedi's regional momentum, SMRC introduced a three-way scenario matching Prabowo against his own vice president, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Democratic Party Chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY). Rather than consolidating the coalition base, Prabowo finished last at 22.7%, while Gibran led with 29.7% and AHY secured 28.2%, with 19.4% undecided.

Divergent Party Loyalty

The survey also uncovered a widening divergence between elite political endorsements and grassroots party loyalty. While seven of eight parliamentary factions formally support the administration, only 20% of Gerindra's own partisan base backed Prabowo, with 74% preferring alternative figures. Across other coalition partners, support dropped to 17% among Golkar voters, 11% for NasDem, 8% for PAN, 6% each for the Democrats and PDI-P, and 2% for PKS.

Economic factors appear to be the primary catalyst driving voters away from the incumbent. Cross-tabulation metrics revealed that among respondents dissatisfied with Prabowo's performance, his electability shriveled to just 1.0%. More than half of the national electorate, or 50.8%, categorized broader macroeconomic conditions as poor, with steep grocery and staple food inflation cited as the most pressing domestic grievance.

The public backlash has similarly diluted the electoral payoff of the administration's signature programs. Support for Prabowo was lower among citizens aware of the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program and the Red and White Village Cooperatives (KDMP) than among those unaware, with voters expressing deep skepticism over execution and fiscal governance.