Gerindra Tops Poltracking Survey as 5% Threshold Threatens Parliament's Established Parties

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — A proposed hike in Indonesia’s parliamentary threshold to 5% could leave only five political parties with safe seats in the House of Representatives (DPR), while middle-tier incumbents and smaller contenders hover within the margin of error, according to a Poltracking Indonesia survey released on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026.

The projection emerges from a nationwide survey titled "Reading the Electoral Map and Political Party Dynamics," conducted between Aug. 14 and Aug. 20, 2026. The findings land directly in the middle of escalating behind-the-scenes negotiations as party chiefs and parliamentary factions prepare to overhaul the general election law (RUU Pemilu).

President Prabowo Subianto’s party, the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), secured the top position with 23.2% of voter preferences. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) ranked second with 11.6%, closely followed by the Golkar Party at 10.4%.

"These are the top three political parties in our measurements during this survey cycle: Gerindra at 23.2%, PDI-P at 11.6%, and Golkar at 10.4%," Poltracking Indonesia researcher Yoki Alvetro said on Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026.

The National Awakening Party (PKB) followed in fourth position with 6.2%, while the Democratic Party (Demokrat) recorded 6.1%.

Raising the legislative threshold from 4% to 5% aims to accelerate the consolidation of a fractured legislature and provide cohesive governing majorities behind the executive. However, lifting the bar risks disenfranchising millions of ballots and sweeping out established middle-tier parties that have formed the backbone of parliamentary politics for two decades.

Middle-Tier Incumbents Face Legislative Exclusion

The survey figures signal severe headwinds for three sitting parliamentary forces: the NasDem Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). All three fell short of the proposed 5% barrier, with NasDem capturing 4.4%, PAN polling at 3.4%, and PKS logging 3.3%.

Even under the current 4% statutory baseline, both PAN and PKS would fail to secure DPR representation based on the Poltracking data. Non-parliamentary contenders remained far below the mark, with the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) posting 2.3% and the United Development Party (PPP) recording 1.9%, with other parties registering below 1%.

Yoki emphasized that the results capture a snapshot of voter sentiment from mid-August 2026 and remain fluid. Public alignments could shift depending on emerging national issues and strategic maneuvers executed by party secretariats.

The survey used stratified multistage random sampling across 1,220 respondents nationwide, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9% at a 95% confidence level. Poltracking noted that 64.7% of surveyed citizens were unaware of the existing 4% threshold, though 49% of informed respondents viewed a threshold rule as appropriate, while 14.8% favored a bar above 7% and 7.6% preferred 6%.

Coalition Leaders Converge on 5% Benchmark

Party chairs supporting the administration of President Prabowo and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka have already convened high-level meetings to coordinate revisions to the election law, centering deliberations on both the legislative threshold and presidential nomination thresholds.

Gerindra Secretary-General Sugiono confirmed that his party backs the 5% legislative target, aligning with earlier proposals voiced by Golkar.

"If it were up to us, we agree at 5%," Sugiono said at the parliament complex in Senayan, Jakarta, on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026. "Gerindra agrees on the 5% threshold, just as Golkar voiced previously, and I believe that is what we have settled on."

Sugiono noted that in the initial meeting of coalition chiefs, Gerindra was represented by Daily Chair Sufmi Dasco Ahmad as Sugiono was accompanying President Prabowo to the BRICS Summit in New Delhi, India. He emphasized that coalition talks also aim to ensure electoral efficiency so that fewer voter ballots are wasted.

"The point is how this election can be more efficient, effective, and how remaining people's votes can be properly accommodated, because regardless, those are their voices and aspirations," Sugiono added.

Golkar General Chairman Bahlil Lahadalia affirmed that 5% represents the most balanced figure for cross-party negotiations, despite competing proposals seeking numbers from under 5% up to 7%.

"During inter-party communications, some wanted 6%, 7%, 5%, or below that. But as an ideal figure, 5% feels suitable," Bahlil said at the Presidential Palace complex in Jakarta on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026.

PKB Backs Proportionality as PAN Demands Consensus

Support for the 5% benchmark also came from PKB. Muhammad Khozin, a member of Commission II of the DPR from the PKB faction, described 5% as proportional and relevant to balance public political representation against party system simplification. He noted that the move adheres to Constitutional Court (MK) Decision No. 116/PUU-XXI/2023, which mandated a more rational threshold structure.

"The 5% figure represents PKB's view in seeing an ideal electoral system design, while still leaving room for joint deliberation in the drafting of the election bill," Khozin said on Friday, Sept. 18, 2026. He calculated that a 5% threshold on paper would still allow seven to eight parties into Senayan, roughly mirroring the 2024 election configuration.

Similar backing has emerged from PDI-P, where Central Board Honorary Committee Chairman Komarudin Watubun described 5% as ideal for legislative simplification.

Conversely, PAN has displayed internal friction over the hike. PAN Deputy General Chairman Viva Yoga Mauladi voiced objections to setting the threshold above 4%, arguing that higher barriers run counter to the spirit of the Constitutional Court ruling. However, PAN General Chairman Zulkifli Hasan took a pragmatic line, signaling that PAN will defer to the governing coalition's collective will.

"As long as the agreement is unanimous, we are on board. Our stance is that if everyone agrees, we agree as well. No problem," Zulkifli said following PAN’s 28th anniversary event in Jakarta on Friday, Sept. 18, 2026. "Including on the matter of the threshold, we will follow, but there must be agreement and togetherness. That is the most important thing."

Parliamentary Leadership and Non-Parliamentary Parties Urge Caution

House Speaker Puan Maharani moved to temper expectations of an imminent done deal, stressing that talks surrounding the 5% figure and presidential nomination thresholds remain informal and exploratory.

"Talk that the threshold will be 5% is still in the discussion stage. There is no official agreement that the threshold will later be carried by two political parties. That is also still in the informal discourse phase, so it is not yet official because the formal deliberation will take place in the DPR," Puan said during a press conference at the Senayan Parliament Complex on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026.

Puan underlined that Komisi II is currently absorbing input from public stakeholders to design an electoral system that is both effective and efficient, noting that parliament has ample runway with the next election slated for 2029.

Outside the legislature, emerging non-parliamentary parties are urging their bases not to be rattled. Triwisaksana, Head of Member Recruitment at the Gelora Party, described the 5% chatter as early political maneuvering to test the waters.

"I emphasize that the regulatory dynamics for the 2029 election are still very fluid. This is merely discourse, whether it is the 5% threshold or the presidential candidacy requirement of two factions," Triwisaksana said on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026. He reminded cadres that rules remain subject to legislative adjustments and constitutional review at the MK, urging the party to focus on membership recruitment and official verification on the KPU’s Sipol database.