Corporates May Need to Raise Up to $11.70 Billion in Bonds in 2026: Pefindo

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia Credit Rating Agency or Pefindo says corporates need to issue Rp154 trillion to Rp196.86 trillion, equal to $9.15 billion to $11.70 billion, in new bonds on Wednesday, Feb 11, 2026 in Jakarta to refinance maturing debt and support expansion, as market conditions are expected to remain relatively supportive. The midpoint estimate of required issuance stands at Rp175.77 trillion.

Corporate bonds maturing by the end of 2026 are estimated at Rp162.72 trillion (around $9.67 billion), creating substantial refinancing pressure across sectors. The figure is broadly similar to last year’s maturity level, indicating a continued rollover cycle in the domestic debt market.

Pefindo Chief Economist Suhindarto said refinancing needs remained the main driver behind next year’s projected issuance.

"The first supporting factor is that refinancing needs remain high, as bonds maturing in 2026 are still around Rp162.72 trillion, not much different from last year at around Rp161 trillion. With interest rates relatively low and the possibility of further cuts next year, refinancing demand is expected to be met through new corporate bond issuance," Suhindarto said during the briefing.

He added, "Issuance demand will remain high, supported by strong economic fundamentals, where in 2026 expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are expected to be directed toward driving stronger economic growth."

The average yield of five-year government bonds is projected to decline to around 5.8 percent in 2026, giving issuers room to reduce funding costs and improve leverage structures. Lower yields and easing risk premiums are also seen supporting appetite from institutional investors and asset managers seeking higher returns than sovereign securities.

However, Pefindo warned that geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in global economic policy could disrupt sentiment and increase borrowing costs. Depreciation pressure on the rupiah and potential tariff policies could lift inflation risks, potentially limiting further yield declines.

High government bond supply, although still absorbed by the market, may also cap further compression in corporate yields. Slower business growth in the financial sector, particularly banking and multifinance companies that traditionally dominate debt issuance, could weigh on overall issuance momentum.

Investor preference for A-rated and above issuers may narrow access for BBB-rated companies and certain sectors. At the same time, improving equity market prospects could lead some firms to substitute debt financing with share issuance.