Kalbe Earnings Seen Growing as KLBF Shares Target Rp 1,710

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Kalbe Farma Tbk or KLBF is expected to sustain earnings growth in 2025 as solid demand and operational recovery offset margin pressure, prompting analysts to maintain a buy recommendation.

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas kept its buy rating on KLBF with a target price of Rp 1,710, compared with the stock’s closing price of Rp 1,220 on Friday, Jan 23, 2026.

Analysts Ismail Fakhri Suweleh and Wilastita Muthia Sofi said Kalbe’s core profit in the 2025 fiscal year was projected to grow about 6 percent year on year, well above the industry average of around 1 percent.

They noted that despite this outlook, KLBF shares had corrected 6.3 percent year to date in 2026, making downside risk relatively limited.

“KLBF stands out as a fundamentally strong stock currently under pressure, with limited downside risk,” Ismail said in a recent research note.

Kalbe’s revenue and net profit for full year 2025 were projected at around Rp 35 trillion and Rp 3.5 trillion, respectively, broadly in line with market consensus.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue was estimated at about Rp 9 trillion, up 2 percent quarter on quarter and 8 percent year on year.

Net profit for the quarter was forecast to reach Rp 919 billion, jumping 40 percent quarter on quarter and growing 7 percent year on year.

The estimates assumed that the first nine months of 2025 would contribute around 74 percent of full year performance.

Through September 2025, Kalbe recorded revenue growth of 7 percent year on year and net profit growth of 11 percent year on year, in line with management guidance of 6 to 8 percent growth.

Ismail said concerns over weaker nutrition segment performance due to higher US dollar based input costs and margin pressure in prescription drugs from BPJS demand remained manageable.

Operationally, Kalbe posted revenue of Rp 8.9 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, up 8 percent quarter on quarter and 13 percent year on year, exceeding analyst expectations.

Net profit in the quarter stood at Rp 656 billion, down 27 percent quarter on quarter but still up 15 percent year on year.

Cumulatively, net profit for January to September 2025 reached Rp 2.6 trillion, equivalent to 74 percent of the full year target.

BRI Danareksa said revenue recovery in the third quarter occurred across all segments, with prescription drugs, consumer health, nutrition, and distribution growing 10 percent, 6 percent, 9 percent, and 7 percent quarter on quarter.

The broad based recovery contrasted with contraction in the second quarter, which was affected by post holiday demand normalization.

Revenue growth helped offset margin pressure, even as gross margin and operating margin declined by 100 basis points and 330 basis points quarter on quarter.

Margin pressure stemmed from a higher share of unbranded generics in BPJS pharmaceuticals, tougher competition in branded drugs, a shift toward non milk nutrition products amid higher dollar based raw material costs, and a 21 percent quarter on quarter increase in selling expenses.

Despite these challenges, analysts viewed KLBF’s valuation as attractive.

KLBF traded at a price to earnings ratio of 16.8 times last year and about 15.8 times in 2025, below its 10 year and five year historical averages of 25.7 times and 23.6 times.

Ismail said the valuation did not fully reflect Kalbe’s stronger core earnings outlook and the defensive nature of its prescription drug business, supported by Indonesia’s aging population and strong marketing strategy.

Based on these factors, BRI Danareksa maintained its buy recommendation with a target price of Rp 1,710.

Key risks highlighted included rupiah depreciation against the US dollar, potential cost overruns, and the risk of fund outflows if KLBF were excluded from the MSCI index.