Prabowo Declares Rice Self-Sufficiency at National Christmas as Economists Warn of Food Inflation Risks

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — President Prabowo Subianto announces that Indonesia has achieved rice self-sufficiency as of Monday, Jan 5, 2026 in Jakarta during the National Christmas 2025 celebration, saying the milestone proves his administration delivers results faster than promised. The declaration came as food prices remained the main driver of inflation, raising questions about distribution and purchasing power.

Speaking at Tennis Indoor Senayan, Prabowo said the achievement marked a historic moment for national food security. He told attendees that Indonesia no longer relied on rice imports by the end of 2025.

“Brothers and sisters, at this Christmas celebration I can proudly state that as of December 31, 2025, the Indonesian nation has achieved rice self-sufficiency,” Prabowo said.

Prabowo said rice self-sufficiency was one of his core pledges during the 2024 presidential campaign. He said he initially set a four-year target after taking office.

“I gave my team a target that we must achieve rice self-sufficiency within four years,” the president said. “That was my target, four years.”

He said the goal was achieved far ahead of schedule due to coordination and hard work across government institutions. Prabowo stressed that Indonesia did not import any rice throughout 2025.

“In 2025, we did not import rice at all,” he said. “A four-year target was achieved in just one year.”

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Prabowo added that the policy had global implications, claiming Indonesia decision to halt rice imports contributed to a sharp decline in global rice prices. He said the move benefited other countries as well.

“We did not only help Indonesia, we helped the world,” Prabowo said. “Because we did not import rice, global rice prices fell by hundreds of dollars, and many countries thanked us.”

While the government celebrated food self-sufficiency, inflation data released the same day highlighted ongoing pressure from food prices. Statistics Indonesia reported December 2025 inflation of 0.64% month on month and 2.92% year on year.

Responding to the data, Eliza Mardian, an economist at the Center of Reform on Economics Indonesia, said inflation pressures since the third quarter of 2025 were driven mainly by volatile food prices rather than fuel or regulated tariffs.

“Current inflation elasticity is highly influenced by food prices,” Eliza said. “This indicates rising food prices since the third quarter of 2025, even though statistically some commodities recorded production surpluses on an annual basis.”

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She said the main issue was not annual production capacity but weak distribution, high logistics costs, and unstable monthly supply. According to Eliza, these factors caused oversupply in some months and shortages in others.

“The absence of cold storage means perishable food cannot be stored for long periods,” she said. “As a result, prices collapse during oversupply and surge sharply when production is disrupted.”

Eliza said extreme rainfall during the third and fourth quarters of 2025 worsened production and distribution challenges, particularly in rural areas with limited road and storage infrastructure. She said cold storage should function as a price stabilization tool.

Beyond food, Eliza said energy prices also contributed to inflation pressures despite stable prices for subsidized fuels. She noted year-on-year increases in non-subsidized fuels such as Pertamax, Dexlite, and Pertamina Dex.

She warned that rising food and energy prices were not matched by wage growth, eroding purchasing power, especially among middle-income households. According to Eliza, this group often fell outside the scope of social assistance programs.

“Government policies have not sufficiently reached the vulnerable middle class,” she said. “They do not receive social aid, while their incomes remain relatively stagnant.”

Eliza said food prices accounted for more than half of household spending, forcing many families to reduce savings to meet daily needs. She said food price stabilization and purchasing power protection should be top policy priorities.

The contrast between rice self-sufficiency and persistent food inflation underscored the next challenge for the government. While production targets have been met, economists said distribution efficiency and price stability will determine whether the gains are fully felt by households.