Astra International Sees Re-Rating Potential After Toyota Launches Veloz Hybrid

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Astra International Tbk or ASII enters what analysts describe as a new re-rating cycle on Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 in Jakarta after Toyota under the Astra group launches four hybrid variants of the Veloz priced between Rp 299 million and Rp 390 million, marking Astra’s first mass market hybrid offering and strengthening its position in the national automotive market.

PT Astra International Tbk is Indonesia’s largest automotive distributor and manufacturer across Toyota, Daihatsu, and Lexus brands.

Analysts from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas said the new hybrid launch responds directly to Astra’s temporary market share drop to 47 percent in October following large shipments of BYD Atto 1 units.

“This hybrid model is designed to strengthen Astra’s position outside tier-1 cities and in non-Java regions — markets with low EV adoption due to the lack of charging stations and steeper depreciation of EV resale values,” the analysts said.

They estimated fuel efficiency of 26–28 kilometers per liter, around 50 percent higher than the ICE version’s 13–18 kilometers per liter, making the Veloz Hybrid attractive for long distance users.

With the ICE Veloz historically selling around 1,000 units per month, the analysts projected the hybrid could contribute 9,000–12,000 units annually, equal to an additional 1.0–1.4 percentage points of national market share in 2026.

Astra expects hybrid deliveries to start in March 2026, and the analysts said the added volume should help keep Astra’s market share near 53 percent.

They noted the Rp 299–390 million price range would not trigger discount competition in the Rp 300–400 million segment, preserving Astra’s margin outlook because the model targets customers outside major cities where Astra’s distribution strength remains unmatched.

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas maintained its buy call on ASII with a target price of Rp 7,450 based on a sum of the parts valuation that implies a 9.2-times forward price-to-earnings ratio, or one standard deviation above the five-year average.

They said the target price reflects two short term catalysts: historically strong November–December vehicle sales that show an 80 percent correlation with ASII’s stock performance, and expected 2026 market share stability tied to the Veloz Hybrid, which historically shows a 65 percent correlation with the stock’s movement.

The Ministry of Industry is reviewing potential new incentives for fuel efficient and locally manufactured models, which could add further support to automotive demand next year.