Blue Bird’s Outlook Brightens in Late 2025 as Analysts See Upside in BIRD Shares
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s leading taxi operator Blue Bird Tbk, or BIRD, is projected to deliver stronger performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 as the rainy season and Christmas–New Year holiday travel increase passenger demand and fleet utilization. Analysts say the seasonal surge amplifies revenue momentum across both taxi and non-taxi services, reinforcing the company’s positive year-end trajectory.
Samuel Sekuritas reaffirmed its buy recommendation on BIRD with a target price of Rp 2,900, signaling more than 63 percent upside from Monday’s closing level of Rp 1,770. The brokerage noted that peak weather conditions and festive mobility patterns historically lift BIRD’s earnings in the final quarter.
Jason Sebastian, analyst at Samuel Sekuritas, said BIRD was likely to record stronger operating metrics in the fourth quarter, driven by high taxi usage during heavy rainfall and increased demand for intercity and interprovincial shuttle services during holiday travel. He noted that utilization improvements remained a key driver of profitability.
Looking ahead, Sebastian said the non-taxi segment would serve as the company’s main growth engine, supported by an estimated compound annual growth rate of 24.3 percent in 2025–2027. He added that the rental and shuttle business targeting upper–middle consumers had become a major catalyst for BIRD’s structural expansion.
Meanwhile, the taxi segment was projected to grow in the low-teens, helped by the adoption of dynamic pricing and the declining promotional subsidies offered by on-demand ride-hailing rivals. These conditions supported a more rational competitive environment across the market.
Samuel Sekuritas also highlighted emerging competitive pressures from Green SM, the electric taxi operator under Vietnam’s Vingroup, which introduced VinFast EV taxis in Indonesia in December 2024. Offering fares 30 to 40 percent lower than Blue Bird, Green SM could attract first-time users and price-sensitive riders.
The brokerage said the reactivation of Express Taxi, or TAXI, also added incremental competition in several urban routes. These developments required strategic responses from BIRD to maintain its leadership.
Despite the rising competition, Samuel Sekuritas maintained its bullish view on BIRD, citing compelling valuation metrics including a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 times, or a 55 percent discount to the industry average. Analysts also highlighted BIRD’s 21.2 percent year-on-year earnings-per-share growth, an 8.2 percent dividend yield, and a low EV-to-taxi valuation of around US$ 14,000 per unit.
Up to the third quarter of 2025, BIRD posted revenue of Rp 1.45 trillion, rising 6.0 percent quarter-on-quarter and 8.5 percent year-on-year, supported mainly by a 7.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 13.8 percent year-on-year increase in the taxi segment. The company benefited from a higher number of working days and stronger demand fundamentals.
Net profit in the third quarter reached Rp 147 billion, down 13.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 15.1 percent year-on-year. This brought BIRD’s cumulative net profit for the first nine months of the year to Rp 483 billion, up 10.6 percent year-on-year.