Rumors of BCA Takeover Deemed Unrealistic, Analysts Call It a Buying Opportunity
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Rumors that the government could acquire a controlling 51% stake in PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, or BBCA, have been dismissed by analysts as unrealistic and fraught with risks for Indonesia’s economy, politics, and legal system. Instead, the recent 6.41% decline in BBCA shares over the past five trading days has been seen as the best opportunity to start accumulating stock in the country’s largest private bank, which is controlled by the Djarum Group.
The takeover speculation resurfaced after Sasmito Hadinegoro, Chairman of the State Economic and Financial Investigation Institute (LPEKN) and economist at Universitas Gadjah Mada, called for the government to revisit the long-standing Bank Indonesia Liquidity Assistance (BLBI) case involving BCA and suggested seizing 51% of its shares.
His remarks were later echoed by Ahmad Iman Syukri, Head of Communication and Information Technology at the National Awakening Party (PKB), who urged President Prabowo Subianto to swiftly execute the takeover as a matter of safeguarding state finances.
The rumor drew an immediate response from Rosan Perkasa Roeslani, CEO of Danantara Indonesia, the state sovereign wealth fund, who firmly denied any such plan. “No, there isn’t,” he said when asked by reporters after a closed-door meeting with Commission XI of the House of Representatives in Jakarta on Tuesday, Aug 19, 2025.
Stock Pressure Meets Foreign Buying
Market jitters quickly weighed on BBCA shares, which fell 6.41% to Rp8,400 ($513) over five days, bucking the trend of other major banks. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) gained 0.99%, Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) was flat, while Bank Mandiri (BMRI) slipped 1.22%.
Foreign investors, however, took the drop as an entry point, recording a net buy of Rp443.99 billion ($27.1 million) in BBCA over the past week, placing the stock among the top five most-purchased by offshore funds.
Muhammad Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, said the takeover chatter amounted to little more than political noise. “This is merely a narrative pushed by certain individuals. The government surely monitors market conditions and is expected to take a pro-market stance,” he said.
Nafan emphasized BBCA’s heavyweight status with a market capitalization exceeding Rp1,000 trillion ($61 billion), second only to renewable energy giant PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN). Any forced action on BCA, he warned, would reverberate across the Jakarta Stock Exchange.
Analysts See Buying Window
BBCA’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by credit growth surpassing state-owned peers. “The sharp price decline represents a chance to accumulate. Our resistance targets are Rp8,550 for the near term and Rp12,325 at the upper end,” Nafan said, adding that the stock is in a “mediation test phase within a major uptrend.”
Hendra Wardana, Founder of Republik Investor, said the hypothetical 51% takeover would inject damaging uncertainty into management independence and strategic direction. “Political interference could undermine market confidence,” he cautioned. He added that BBCA’s large weighting in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) could amplify volatility.
Despite the correction, Hendra projected a technical rebound: “BBCA may test Rp8,300 before reclaiming resistance at Rp9,000.”
Strong Earnings Backdrop
Other experts also argued the stock’s fundamentals remain intact. Capital market observer Reydi Octa noted BBCA’s net profit rose 7.09% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. “This decline is driven by sentiment rather than internal weaknesses. The rebound potential is substantial,” he said.
Brokerage BRI Danareksa Sekuritas last week reaffirmed BBCA as its “top pick” among Indonesian bank stocks, expecting sector recovery in the second half of 2025 as liquidity improves from its second-quarter trough. Analysts highlighted the government’s forthcoming Kopdes Merah Putih program, aimed at supporting village cooperatives, as another tailwind for banks.
BBCA’s valuation has eased to 2.1 times price-to-book value, 0.7 standard deviations below its five-year average. “With asset quality risks receding and discounted valuations, downside is limited. This positions underperforming bank stocks like BBCA, BBRI, and BMRI for a rebound,” BRI Danareksa said, assigning a Rp11,900 target price for BBCA.
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