Foreign Funds Pour Into Indonesia Stocks After MSCI Rebalancing, IHSG Eyes 8,000 Level
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s benchmark stock index closed 185.77 points higher, or 2.44%, at 7,791.70 on Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025, supported by strong foreign inflows following the recent MSCI index rebalancing. Analysts expect the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) to challenge the psychological 8,000 level ahead of the nation’s 80th Independence Day this weekend.
Hendra Wardana, capital market analyst and founder of Republik Investor, said the rally reflected a combination of global and domestic drivers, including news that the United States and China had extended their tariff truce for 90 days, expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, and robust foreign buying triggered by MSCI’s portfolio adjustments.
Foreign investors recorded a net buy of Rp 2.28 trillion ($139 million) in Tuesday’s session, with large-cap banking stocks attracting the bulk of inflows. Purchases reached Rp 718 billion in PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk, or BBRI, Rp 569 billion in PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, or BBCA, and Rp 511 billion in PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, or BMRI.
Indonesia also topped global peers in attracting fresh funds after MSCI’s Global Standard Index added stocks such as PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, and PTRO. Data showed $1.17 billion flowed into Indonesia since the rebalancing announcement last week, outpacing China’s $298 million and India’s $110 million.
“This shows that the more Indonesian stocks are included in global indices, the greater the potential for foreign capital inflows to sustain the IHSG rally,” Hendra told Investortrust.id.
From a technical perspective, Hendra noted the index was in a strong bullish phase, with immediate support at the five-day moving average of 7,626 and near-term resistance at 7,806–7,911. A breakout could pave the way toward harmonic resistance at 8,174–8,354, coinciding with the upper bound of its long-term channel. Positive sentiment was further supported by the rupiah’s stability around Rp 16,280 per U.S. dollar and gains in most global markets.
For Wednesday’s session, Hendra expected the uptrend to continue if foreign inflows persisted. “However, investors should be alert to potential profit-taking as the index approaches its all-time high,” he added.
He said foreign fund focus would likely remain on large-cap bank stocks, with targets at Rp 4,230 for BBRI, Rp 9,125 for BBCA, and Rp 5,200 for BMRI. Sectoral plays also included PTRO at Rp 4,000 on a speculative buy call, PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk at Rp 2,000 on a buy call, and PT WIR Asia Tbk at Rp 150 on a buy call.
“As long as the IHSG holds above 7,750, the short-term uptrend toward the 8,000 psychological level remains intact, though investors must watch for any sudden shifts in global sentiment that could trigger market volatility,” Hendra said.
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