Metal Stocks in Focus for 2H-2025, MBMA Tops Analyst Picks
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA — Investortrust | Shares of Indonesia’s metal mining companies remain attractive heading into the second half of 2025, despite a recent decline in nickel ore prices that has pressured margins across the industry. Analysts from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas believe key supply-demand factors and government policy will drive performance in the months ahead.
In a research note published Wednesday, the brokerage reiterated a “buy” rating on seven listed mining firms, naming PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA) as their top pick with a price target of Rp 490. Other recommended stocks include PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) with a target of Rp 3,300, and PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) at Rp 480.
“We maintain a medium-term positive view on select names in the metal sector, even as spot prices correct in the near term,” wrote Naura Reyhan Muchlis and Timothy Wijaya, analysts at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas.
Margin Squeeze for Non-Integrated Smelters
After rallying throughout 2024 and the first half of 2025, premium nickel ore prices reversed course in July. This correction coincided with falling reference prices for High-Grade Primary Nickel (HPM) and declining prices on the London Metal Exchange.
So far this year, nickel ore prices have climbed 19%, but prices for Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) have dropped by 2%. This divergence has eroded profit margins for non-integrated smelters, which lack secure upstream access and face rising inventory levels alongside compressed or negative spreads.
At its peak in mid-2025, premium ore reached US$26.8/wmt, before retreating in July as demand from smelters weakened. Meanwhile, NPI prices hovered near their annual low at US$11,000/ton, further undermining restocking incentives.
Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Uncertainty
Looking ahead, analysts expect ore prices to continue softening in the short term due to subdued demand for stainless steel restocking and a likely increase in supply. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is preparing to release additional Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) quotas between July and August, coinciding with improved weather conditions.
However, there are also catalysts for price recovery. These include China’s traditional “Golden September, Silver October” restocking season and the possibility that ESDM could revert to an annual RKAB quota policy—introducing fresh uncertainty to domestic supply at a time when global markets are already tight.
Sector Outlook: Neutral, But Ore Still Attractive
Despite the volatile backdrop, BRI Danareksa maintains a Neutral rating on the broader metal mining sector for the second half of 2025. Among various nickel-based products, ore remains the most attractive, offering relatively stronger profit margins compared to Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), NPI, or matte.
Other stocks with a buy call from the brokerage include:
- PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL) — Target price: Rp 1,500
- PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) — Target: Rp 3,000
- PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) — Target: Rp 2,400
- PT Timah Tbk (TINS) — Target: Rp 1,300
These companies are expected to benefit from medium-term demand trends, improving policy clarity, and ongoing global shifts toward battery materials and renewable energy inputs.