IDX Eyes Rebound in July, Composite Index May Break Past 7,000

---

JAKARTA, investortrust.id – Indonesia’s stock market is showing signs of a rebound as the second half of 2025 begins, with analysts pointing to technical indicators and seasonal patterns that suggest the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) could rise past 7,000 in early July.

Although the IHSG ended the fourth week of June slightly lower—down 0.14% to 6,897—technical momentum appears to be shifting. Hendra Wardana, capital markets analyst and founder of Stocknow.id, said the index had successfully bounced from its 100-day moving average, a key institutional support level, while momentum indicators such as the stochastic oscillator suggest potential for short-term upside.

“Technically, the IHSG is expected to move between a support level of 6,745 and resistance at 7,002 in early July. If supported by trading volume and macroeconomic sentiment, a breakout above that range is well within reach,” Hendra told Investortrust on Sunday, June 29.

Seasonal Boost and Global Tailwinds

July has historically been a strong month for the IHSG. Over the past nine years, the index has posted gains every July, with an average monthly increase of 2.31%. Analysts attribute this trend to investor positioning ahead of first-half earnings reports and interim dividend announcements—particularly from major banks.

Adding to the optimism is easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. A two-week ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict has lifted global investor sentiment toward emerging markets, including Indonesia.

Externally, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, but manufacturing orders surged 16.4% in May, the highest since mid-2014. China’s current account surplus reached $165.4 billion in the first quarter, signaling strong global demand and offering a tailwind to Indonesia’s commodity exports.

Domestically, investors are monitoring a slew of macro data—manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, June inflation, and foreign reserves. Stable inflation and a trade surplus would give Bank Indonesia more room to keep interest rates steady, benefiting interest-rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, banking, and consumer spending.

Defensive Rotation and Stock Picks

Sector rotation is also taking shape. The energy index dropped 4.1% in late June, dragging the broader market alongside declines in basic materials, property, industry, and technology.

In contrast, defensive sectors showed resilience. Healthcare gained 1.4%, financials 1.2%, and non-cyclical consumer goods 0.4%, reflecting a shift toward sectors with strong fundamentals and lower exposure to global volatility.

Hendra recommended three stocks for the start of the second half. To begin with, he recommended PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), with arget price Rp 4,130, backed by its exposure to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and potential for interim dividends.

In addition, Hendra picked PT Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA), targeting its price to rise to Rp 480. The stock rebounded from its 100-day moving average, with foreign investors accumulating Rp 30.9 billion over the last two trading days of June, he noted.

Lastly, Hendra reccomended PT Central Omega Resources (DKFT) with target price Rp 500, buoyed by rising volume and strong bullish signals, with Rp 34.7 billion in foreign accumulation over the past month.

Hendra added that a wave of initial public offerings, though modest in scale, signals improving market confidence and offers retail investors opportunities for diversification.