IndocPolls Puts Prabowo Approval at 57.4% as Free Meal Scandals Drag Down Signature Policies

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Entering the completion of its second year in office, the administration of President Prabowo Subianto and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka holds a 57.4% public approval rating, according to a nationwide survey released on Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, by the Indonesia Center for Politics & Law Studies (IndocPolls).

The headline satisfaction level closely tracks the pair’s winning share from the 2024 presidential election. Within that figure, 7.3% of respondents described themselves as very satisfied, while public dissatisfaction climbed to a substantial 40.0%, comprising 3.7% who reported being very dissatisfied and 2.6% who were undecided or declined to answer.

"Public satisfaction touched 57.4% in the first two years of the Prabowo-Gibran administration," IndocPolls Communications Director Taufik Ch said in a written statement in Jakarta.

While a 57.4% approval print keeps the head of state in positive territory, the poll confirms the narrowing political buffer confronting the palace as honeymoon sentiments fade. Grassroots patience is wearing thin under stubborn kitchen-table expenses, operational execution hurdles, and governance scandals within newly established state bodies. As the executive branch prepares ambitious 2027 spending targets and navigates legislative budget scrutiny, policy success is decoupling from campaign momentum, requiring tangible institutional execution to maintain governing leverage.

Datatrust Model Shows Tightening Margin as Approval Retains Lead

Despite the relatively stable headline print from IndocPolls, the broader trajectory of public opinion remains caught in a structural slide. IndocPolls is not an accredited member of the Indonesian Public Opinion Survey Association (Persepi), operating outside the established industry association's peer-review mechanisms and ethical oversight.

When incorporated into Datatrust’s aggregate polling model, which synthesizes 31 surveys since January 2025 across 18 research houses, the update confirms that the multi-quarter downward trend remains firmly intact.

The aggregate model shows that while the multi-quarter slide in executive sentiment remains intact, a definitive crossover—where disapproval decisively overtakes approval—has failed to materialize.

Prior to the inclusion of IndocPolls, the converging trendlines had narrowed to the point where public approval was no longer statistically distinguishable from disapproval under Datatrust’s composite modeling. However, the fresh injection of IndocPolls data lifts Datatrust’s point estimates to 58.0% approval against 43.1% dissatisfaction, pulling their respective confidence interval bands apart once again and re-establishing a statistically distinct lead for executive approval over disapproval.

Defense and Anti-Corruption Drive Frontline Confidence

A sectoral breakdown shows that public approval was highest in national defense and security, where 70.4% of respondents voiced satisfaction, against 24.9% who were dissatisfied and 4.7% undecided.

Taufik linked the favorable defense appraisal to Prabowo’s background as a former general and defense minister, noting that the administration has accelerated the procurement of strategic, modern weapon systems to close capability gaps under Indonesia’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) blueprint.

Law enforcement and corruption eradication also maintained solid public goodwill, securing a 62.1% approval score against 34.1% dissatisfaction and 3.2% undecided. Taufik observed that the administration has actively pursued high-profile corruption probes without favoritism, including investigations reaching deep into the president’s own marquee initiatives.

Scandals Tarnish Flagship Nutrition Drive

The survey revealed a sharp deterioration in public sentiment toward the administration's flagship programs, most notably the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) initiative. Once hailed as the government’s core social deliverable, MBG tumbled to fourth position in program favorability, logging an approval rating of just 10.2%.

"A series of compounding issues—ranging from localized food poisoning outbreaks to corruption allegations implicating senior leadership at the National Nutrition Agency (BGN)—have sharply eroded public satisfaction," Taufik explained.

Leadership within the nutrition agency turned over within a two-month span following graft probes implicating figures reportedly close to the palace. In response, central authorities initiated cost-control measures, temporarily freezing the geographic rollout of Nutritional Fulfillment Service Unit (SPPG) kitchens and refocusing program appropriations.

With the flagship nutrition drive under heavy scrutiny, secondary public initiatives outranked it in public esteem. Free preventive health checkups secured the highest program satisfaction at 18.4%, followed closely by the rehabilitation of damaged public schools at 17.8%, and food, energy, and water self-sufficiency initiatives at 12.8%.

"No single program stands out with definitive success, illustrating the absence of a landmark policy breakthrough at the two-year mark," Taufik emphasized, pointing out that authorities must recalibrate underperforming rollouts while driving newly launched initiatives, including 100-gigawatt solar infrastructure targets, B50 biodiesel mandates, and formal banking access for social transfer recipients.

Lower tiers of policy satisfaction included the People's School initiative at 6.5%, social assistance and wage subsidies at 5.2%, and the 3-million-home construction campaign at 3.0%. The Red and White Village Cooperatives (KDKMP) program secured just 2.2% approval, followed by Garuda Superior Schools at 2.0%, and the establishment of sovereign asset agency Danantara and state enterprise consolidation at 1.7%, with remaining initiatives tallying 7.3% and undecided respondents at 13.1%.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 15 to Oct. 20, 2026, interviewing 1,200 voting-age respondents face-to-face across all 38 provinces using multistage random sampling, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9% at a 95% confidence level.