Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA) Set for $239 Million Profit Turnaround in 2026. Here's Why Analysts See 21% Upside

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Shares of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), one of Indonesia's largest diversified gold, copper, and nickel miners, could have further room to rally after analysts projected the company will return to robust profitability in 2026, supported by rising commodity prices, expanding gold output, and improving operational efficiency.

KB Valbury Securities reiterated its Buy recommendation on MDKA with a target price of Rp3,100 ($0.20) per share, representing a 20.6% upside from the stock's July 10 closing price of Rp2,570 ($0.16).

The upbeat outlook reinforces growing investor confidence in Indonesia's mining sector as elevated gold and copper prices continue to lift earnings across producers. For MDKA, the successful ramp-up of the Pani Gold project could mark a major earnings inflection point after years of heavy investment.

The forecast also suggests Indonesia's large mining companies remain well positioned to benefit from resilient global demand for precious and industrial metals, even as volatility persists across broader commodity markets.

Quarterly Earnings Signal a Strong Turnaround

According to a research note by Ashalia Fitri Yuliana, equity analyst at KB Valbury Securities, MDKA's first-quarter results already demonstrate that turnaround.

The company posted net profit of $57.5 million in the first quarter of 2026, reversing a $27.3 million net loss recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The first-quarter earnings account for 24.1% of KB Valbury's full-year 2026 earnings forecast.

Revenue climbed 23.5% year over year to $620.3 million, fueled by stronger average selling prices for gold, copper, and nickel, which more than offset lower production volumes at the company's Tujuh Bukit and Wetar mining operations.

"The recovery was driven by the rally in global commodity prices, which lifted selling prices for MDKA's key metals," Yuliana said in the research report. "At the Tujuh Bukit mine, the average selling price of gold increased 31% quarter-on-quarter to $4,841 per ounce, while gold sales reached 24,470 ounces."

Pani Gold Emerges as a New Growth Driver

Another important contributor came from the Pani Gold project, operated through subsidiary EMAS, which recorded its first production and commercial sales this year.

During the first quarter, Pani produced 1,818 ounces of gold and sold 516 ounces at an average selling price of $5,123 per ounce, contributing roughly $2 million to consolidated revenue.

Copper operations at Wetar also benefited from stronger pricing, with the average selling price rising to $5.70 per pound from $4.80 per pound in the previous quarter.

Margins Expand as Costs Fall

Higher commodity prices were complemented by significant operational improvements.

Gross profit surged to $218 million, while the gross margin expanded to 35.1%, compared with 8.3% in the previous quarter and 11.5% a year earlier.

EBITDA jumped to $250 million, lifting the EBITDA margin to 40.3%, up sharply from 12.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 17.6% in the same period last year.

Production efficiency also improved substantially. Cash costs for gold mining dropped to $685 per ounce, compared with $1,887 per ounce in the previous quarter, allowing gold mining margins to nearly triple to $4,156 per ounce.

Analysts Forecast Multi-Year Earnings Growth

KB Valbury expects the momentum to continue over the next several years.

The brokerage projects revenue will reach $3.13 billion in 2026 before rising to $3.74 billion in 2027, supported by higher production from Pani Gold, normalized operating costs, and continued strength in commodity prices.

EBITDA is forecast to increase to $1.11 billion in 2026 and $1.57 billion in 2027, implying EBITDA margins of 35.3% and 42.1%, respectively.

Most notably, MDKA is expected to swing to a $239 million net profit in 2026 after recording a $62 million net loss in 2025. Net earnings are projected to climb further to $400 million in 2027 and $487 million in 2028.

According to KB Valbury, the primary catalysts remain sustained strength in gold and base-metal prices, alongside rising production from the Pani Gold project, in which MDKA holds a 63.3% ownership stake.