Antam's Selloff Looks Overdone, Sucor Sees 88% Upside as Gold and Nickel Strength Bolster Outlook

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Shares of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam), Indonesia's state-controlled diversified mining company and one of the country's largest producers of gold and nickel, have come under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions. Yet brokerage Sucor Sekuritas argues the decline has created a compelling entry point rather than signaling weakening fundamentals.

The brokerage maintained its buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rp5,500, representing approximately 87.7% upside from Tuesday's closing price of Rp2,930.

The call comes as investors continue to reassess Indonesia's mining sector amid heightened volatility in commodity markets and broader emerging-market risk sentiment. For investors seeking exposure to the global energy transition and precious metals, Antam remains one of Indonesia's most strategic mining companies, combining gold, nickel ore and ferronickel operations under one listed entity.

Sucor contends that the recent weakness has been driven largely by market sentiment rather than any material change in Antam's earnings outlook.

Fundamentals Remain Intact

In a research report released recently, Sucor analyst Andreas Yordan Tarigan said Antam's long-term growth story remains firmly in place.

"The company's fundamentals continue to be supported by a strong domestic revenue base, accelerating production, and what we believe is among the most attractive valuations in Indonesia's mining sector," Tarigan wrote.

Management has reaffirmed its 2026 operating targets, projecting gold sales of 40 to 50 metric tons, representing annual growth of roughly 7% to 34%.

Nickel ore production allocated for the PT Karya Baru Agung smelter under Indonesia's RKAB mining work plan approval system is expected to reach 18.1 million wet metric tons, with management targeting full utilization of its approved production quota.

Ferronickel sales are also projected to increase between 12% and 25% from a year earlier.

Although Indonesia recently introduced a new benchmark mineral pricing mechanism for nickel ore, known as Harga Patokan Mineral (HPM), management said realized selling prices have remained unchanged, leaving the policy's earnings impact largely neutral for now.

Sucor estimates benchmark saprolite nickel ore prices will remain around $70 per wet metric ton, assuming mining supply and government-approved production quotas remain stable.

Dollar Strength Could Lift Margins

One factor that could further strengthen Antam's profitability is the appreciating U.S. dollar.

Revenue from the company's gold and ferronickel businesses is largely denominated in U.S. dollars, while much of its operating cost base remains in Indonesian rupiah.

"The current projections assume a relatively stable rupiah exchange rate," Tarigan wrote. "Any additional depreciation beyond our base-case assumption would likely provide incremental upside to Antam's earnings."

Sucor also noted that Antam enjoys a relatively balanced business model because much of its revenue is generated domestically, making it less vulnerable than export-focused commodity producers to swings in global demand and foreign-exchange volatility.

Earnings Growth Expected to Accelerate

The brokerage forecasts revenue to increase from Rp84.64 trillion ($5.32 billion) in 2025 to Rp128.14 trillion ($8.06 billion) in 2026.

Sales are expected to continue expanding to Rp135.43 trillion ($8.52 billion) in 2027 and Rp143.71 trillion ($9.04 billion) in 2028.

Net profit is projected to rise from Rp7.21 trillion ($454 million) in 2025 to Rp10.01 trillion ($630 million) in 2026 before climbing to Rp10.67 trillion ($671 million) in 2027 and Rp12.15 trillion ($764 million) in 2028.

"Net income is expected to grow 38.9% in 2026 before returning to a more normalized growth trajectory of 6.6% in 2027 and 13.8% in 2028," Tarigan said.

Valuation Appears Increasingly Attractive

Sucor also expects Antam's profitability metrics to improve steadily.

Return on equity is projected to rise from 19.7% in 2025 to 22.9% in 2026, while return on invested capital is forecast to increase from 24.4% to 35.4% over the same period before reaching 40.9% in 2028.

Meanwhile, valuation multiples continue to compress.

Sucor projects Antam's forward price-to-earnings ratio will decline from 9.8 times in 2025 to 7.1 times in 2026, falling further to 6.6 times in 2027 and 5.8 times in 2028.

Its enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple is expected to contract from 6.3 times to 3.6 times in 2026 before declining to 2.2 times by 2028, reinforcing the brokerage's view that the stock trades at a significant discount despite robust earnings prospects.