Indonesia's 72-Month Trade Surplus Streak Ends as Imports Surge, Exports Slide Into Contraction

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia posted its first monthly trade deficit in more than six years in May after surging energy imports and weakening exports pushed the country's merchandise trade balance into the red, ending a record 72 consecutive months of surplus.

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported a $1.61 billion trade deficit in May, reversing April's modest $89.1 million surplus and breaking a streak that had lasted since May 2020.

The trade balance has been one of Indonesia's strongest macroeconomic buffers in recent years, supporting the rupiah, foreign exchange reserves and investor confidence during periods of global volatility.

The return to deficit does not necessarily signal a structural deterioration, but it underscores how falling commodity exports and rising energy imports are narrowing one of the country's key economic strengths.

Energy Imports Drive the Deficit

Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Ateng Hartono said the deficit was entirely driven by the oil and gas sector.

"The May 2026 deficit was caused by the oil and gas trade balance, which recorded a deficit of $3.76 billion," Ateng said during BPS's monthly press briefing in Jakarta on Wednesday.

The largest negative contributions came from crude oil and refined petroleum products as Indonesia continued to rely heavily on imported energy supplies.

Non-Oil Trade Remains in Surplus

Outside the energy sector, Indonesia continued to generate a healthy surplus.

The country's non-oil and gas trade balance posted a $2.15 billion surplus, supported by exports of mineral fuels, animal and vegetable fats and oils, and iron and steel.

During the first five months of 2026, Indonesia still recorded a cumulative merchandise trade surplus of $4.03 billion.

That figure was supported by a $16.31 billion non-oil surplus, although it was significantly offset by a $12.28 billion oil and gas deficit.

Imports Surge While Exports Lose Momentum

The deterioration in the trade balance reflected a sharp divergence between imports and exports during May.

Imports climbed 22.16% from a year earlier to $24.81 billion, driven by a 70.78% surge in oil and gas imports to $4.51 billion. Raw materials and intermediate goods remained the biggest contributor to import growth, suggesting manufacturers continued purchasing production inputs despite slowing factory activity.

"The value of raw materials and intermediate goods, which became the main driver of import growth, contributed 17.41 percentage points to the increase in total imports," Ateng said.

Exports, meanwhile, fell 5.73% year-on-year to $23.2 billion.

Oil and gas exports plunged 31.76% to $760 million, while non-oil exports slipped 4.5% to $22.45 billion as shipments of precious metals, metal ores, iron and steel weakened.

"The decline in May's exports was mainly driven by weaker non-oil exports," Ateng said.

BPS said all three major non-oil export sectors contracted during the month.

Manufacturing exports declined 3.59%, mining exports fell 7.03%, and agricultural exports dropped 20.43%, reflecting softer global demand and lower shipments of several key commodities, including palm oil products, precious metals and electrical equipment.

The data suggest Indonesia's external sector is entering a more challenging phase, with slowing export earnings coinciding with stronger import demand, particularly for energy, after years in which elevated commodity prices consistently generated large trade surpluses.