ACES Stock: Why The Retail Giant Remains a "Buy" Despite Cooling Mall Traffic

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk (ACES), the powerhouse behind the iconic home improvement brand formerly known as Ace Hardware Indonesia, is proving that premium customer spending can outpace broader retail headwinds. While foot traffic in major malls is cooling, the company—now operating under the AZKO brand—is successfully squeezing more value from every shopper who walks through its doors.

Investors are watching ACES closely because it acts as a bellwether for Indonesia’s middle-class consumption. The latest data reveals a crucial trend: while the "same store sales growth" (SSSG) slowed to 2.1% through May, the average transaction value jumped by 10%. This indicates that while fewer people are visiting malls, those who do are spending more per trip, effectively protecting the bottom line from macroeconomic cooling.

Steady Growth in a Challenging Quarter

Total revenue for the first five months of 2026 climbed to roughly $237 million (Rp 3.77 trillion), marking a 6.1% increase compared to the same period last year. This performance aligns perfectly with projections from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, one of the country's top investment banks.

Management notes that June trends are mirroring May, as household budgets tighten ahead of the new school year—a common seasonal drag on discretionary spending in Indonesia. However, the company remains undeterred in its long-term strategy.

Aggressive Expansion Plans

Expansion remains the primary engine for future growth. In May alone, the firm added four new AZKO outlets and two NEKA stores, bringing its total network to 285 locations. Management is sticking to its aggressive annual guidance of launching up to 80 new stores by the end of the year, expecting the pace of openings to accelerate significantly in the third and fourth quarters.

Analysts at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas remain bullish, keeping their "Buy" rating and a target price of roughly $0.028 (Rp 450) per share. They point to an attractive valuation, noting that the stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.2 times, roughly 1.5 standard deviations below its three-year average.

The Financial Forecast

The outlook for the full year 2026 remains optimistic. Analysts project that ACES will generate total revenue of $578.6 million (Rp 9.20 trillion), a substantial climb from the $542.7 million (Rp 8.63 trillion) reported in 2025. Net profit is also expected to rise to approximately $43.5 million (Rp 692 billion), up from $42 million (Rp 669 billion) in the previous fiscal year.

"Currently, ACES stock is trading at a valuation... that is about 1.5 standard deviations below the three-year average, making it an attractive proposition," analysts at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas wrote in their recent research note.