Indonesia’s Q2 GDP Data Questioned by Economists—Coordinating Minister Airlangga Dismisses Allegations
Main Takeaways
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JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Indonesia’s economic chief has rejected allegations of data irregularities after second-quarter GDP growth surprised economists, triggering calls to reassess statistical methodologies.
Speaking at a press briefing in Jakarta on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto firmly denied any manipulation of the gross domestic product (GDP) figures released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS).
“Where’s the manipulation? That’s just not true,” Airlangga said when asked about growing skepticism over the 5.12% year-on-year GDP expansion in the April–June quarter.
The rebuttal came in response to concerns raised by Nailul Huda, Director of the Digital Economy Center at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), who questioned the reliability of the data. Huda pointed out that Q2’s growth was unexpectedly stronger than Q1’s 4.87%, even though the first quarter typically benefits from higher consumption during the Ramadan and Eid period.
He also highlighted a disconnect between the reported 5.68% growth in the manufacturing sector and Indonesia’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which remained below the 50-point threshold—indicating contraction—for the entirety of Q2.
“Manufacturers were not expanding significantly, yet the processing industry was said to have grown robustly,” Huda said, adding that layoffs surged 32% year-on-year in the first half, further contradicting the optimistic output figures.
Data Revisions and Unexplained Jumps
David Sumual, chief economist at Bank Central Asia (BCA), also noted anomalies in the statistical revisions for the first quarter. BPS adjusted household consumption upward to 4.95% from 4.89%, while government spending was marginally revised from -1.38% to -1.37%. Exports were lowered from 6.78% to 6.46%, while imports were revised up from 3.96% to 4.17%.
“These tweaks don’t change the overall Q1 growth, but they’re worth watching,” said David.
He acknowledged that gross fixed capital formation (investment) likely increased in Q2 but questioned the magnitude of BPS’s reported surge, which mirrored pre-pandemic growth levels of 7% in 2017–2018.
David also questioned why value-added tax (VAT) receipts remained flat despite the purported rise in consumption and investment. “No economist projected growth above 5%, so this caught everyone off guard,” he said.
He urged a comprehensive review of BPS’s methodology to clarify why certain economic components, particularly investment, showed outsized gains. “The investment figure is what really raises eyebrows—it’s unusually strong,” David added.
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